Interest rates could set the direction for crypto this week, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all expected to hold while markets look for signs that higher energy prices have brought further tightening closer.
CME’s FedWatch shows a 33% chance of a U.S. rate increase, while prediction markets odds are at 19%, up from next to nothing earlier in the month. Gregory Daco, the chief economist for EY-Parthenon, said September could be the first meaningful test of the Fed’s stance, CBS News reported.
More immediate tests come Thursday, with U.S. second-quarter GDP and June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) due. Strong growth alongside persistent inflation would reinforce higher-for-longer interest-rate expectations and pressure crypto prices through higher yields and a stronger dollar, while softer readings could unwind that trade.
All 70 economists in a Reuters poll expected the BOE to hold at 3.75%, while the BOJ is forecast to remain at 1% before potentially raising rates again later this year.
Crypto-specific tests include BitMEX’s early settlement of 35 derivatives and the start of FTX’s roughly $900 million creditor distribution. Earnings from Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) will further provide insights into retail activity and digital-asset treasury companies.
What to Watch
(All times ET)
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Crypto
- July 27: The CFTC’s comment window on extending listed-derivatives trading to 24/7 and allowing perpetual contracts for physically delivered or storable commodities closes
- July 29: Polygon to undergo its Ithaca hard fork upgrade on mainnet.
- July 30: BitMEX to settle and delist 35 derivatives contracts as the exchange proceeds with its wind-down.
- July 31: FTX Recovery Trust’s fifth distribution to creditors set to begin.
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Macro
- July 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for June (Prev. -4.5%)
- July 28, 09:30 p.m.: Australia CPI YoY for June (Prev. 4.1%); RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Prev. 3.6%)
- July 29, 02:00 p.m.: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Est. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%)
- July 29, 02:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Press Conference on FOMC monetary policy decision, interest-rate trajectory, economic outlook.
- July 30, 05:00 a.m.: Eurozone GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash for Q2 (Prev. -0.2%); YoY Flash (Prev. 0.3%)
- July 30, 07:00 a.m.: Bank of England interest rate decision est. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%)
- July 30, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ Adv for Q2 (Prev. 2.1%)
- July 30, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for period ending July 25 (Prev. 187K)
- July 30, 08:30 a.m.: U.S. PCE price index YoY for June (Prev. 4.1%); Core PCE YoY (Prev. 3.4%)
- July 30, 09:30 p.m.: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for July (Prev. 50.3); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2)
- July 30, 11:00 p.m.: Bank of Japan interest rate decision est. 1% (Prev. 1%)
- July 31, 05:00 a.m.: Eurozone CPI YoY Flash for July est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%); Core CPI YoY Flash est. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%)
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Earnings
- July 28: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.28
- July 29: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.41
- July 29: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.22
- July 29: SoFi Technologies (SOFI), pre-market, $0.11
- July 30: Mastercard (MA), pre-market, $4.76
- July 30: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $0.14
- July 30: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, $16.85
- July 31: Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), pre-market, $3.32
- July 31: Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), post-market