The Fed also left interest rates unchanged in June, keeping them stable at 5.25-5.50 percent. Following the June decision, markets this week turned their attention to the July interest rate decision.
When Will the FED’s July Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
The Federal Reserve’s July interest rate decision is expected to impact gold, the dollar, oil, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies. The Fed will announce its July decision on Wednesday, July 29th, at 9:00 PM Turkish time. Following the decision, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will make a statement at 9:30 PM.
In Which Direction Are Expectations Focusing?
Bitcoin and global markets started the new week positively after the cessation of mutual attacks between the US and Iran. Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $65,000 level again, while global markets will closely watch for the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, as well as the messages in the decision statement and the Fed Chairman’s remarks.
At this point, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in July, as it did in June. The probability of keeping rates unchanged is priced at 66.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate increase is priced at 33.7%.
Experts generally predict that the Fed will not raise interest rates for the remainder of the year, noting that inflationary effects are still limited and that tariffs have already been reflected in prices.
Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said, “I expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year and going into next year.”
Zandi stated that inflation has likely peaked and that much depends on how the conflict between the US and Iran unfolds.
Zandi also stated that the new Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that he will not be as transparent as his predecessor regarding forward guidance, adding that investors will be looking for clues about the Fed’s next move and that volatility in bond yields will increase.
The new chairman, Kevin Warsh, has adopted a somewhat more secretive approach than his predecessor, Jerome Powell, making predictions even more difficult. Warsh’s style of giving short answers and avoiding lengthy discussions further increases the uncertainty.
*This is not investment advice.