Bitcoin [$BTC] has traded lower since the bears seized control in October, when its price briefly pushed past $126,000.
The asset has fallen 25.98% this year, and the downtrend keeps extending. The slide has stripped $665 billion from its market capitalization and dragged its valuation down to $1.29 trillion.
Bitcoin has shown fresh strength over the past day, crossing the $65,000 mark in the early hours of Wednesday, but analysts warn the expected bull run could still be delayed.
Bitcoin’s bull run isn’t here yet
Joao Wedson, market analyst and founder of Alphractal, said in a recent X post the bull market for Bitcoin could take another two months to kick in.
“Based on Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns, there could still be at least 2 months to go from today.”
His call draws on analysis showing Bitcoin’s resilience against intensifying bear pressure—at the bears’ peak on day 267, the asset had fallen just 53.1%.
The last three bear markets – 2013 to 2015, 2017 to 2018, and 2021 to 2022 – carved out drawdowns of 85.3%, 83.4%, and 75.7%, respectively, with an average duration of 382 days.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits 303 days past its market peak, leaving roughly 79 more days of decline, landing the bottom in October.
Bitcoin’s short-term holders hint at a breakout
FrankAFetter, a pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst, reads the recent surge more positively and expects a decent near-term performance.
He built the case on Bitcoin’s short-term holder profit/loss ratio. The chart pattern he highlighted shows the ratio failing each time it reaches the break-even point, pushing Bitcoin back into loss.
It has played out twice – once as Bitcoin tested $97,000 and again as the asset traded into $82,000 – forming lower highs.
This time he anticipates a breakout and a sustained rally above the break-even point because he believes short-term holders now act as “market actors with a long-term holder mindset.”
“They are all buyers from the initial February crash to 60k.”
For a longer, sustained rally, Bitcoin would need to clear one of the local highs, the nearest sitting in the $82,000 region.
Bitcoin’s sell walls stand between price and a rally
The two analysts stay split on Bitcoin’s near- and long-term path, but liquidity will do much to determine where price heads next.
A recent AMBCrypto report flagged the question of whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward run, as a growing sell wall builds across the $64,000 to $65,000 region.
Liquidation data marks those sell walls as a critical hurdle, and Bitcoin must clear the $65,000 level convincingly for any sustained rally to hold.
Final Summary
- Joao Wedson sees Bitcoin’s bull market roughly two months out, with cycle patterns pointing to an October bottom.
- FrankAFetter expects a breakout, but $BTC must clear the $64,000 to $65,000 sell wall and reclaim $82,000 for any rally to hold.