Software stocks break away from bitcoin: What the rare divergence means for crypto

Software stocks are breaking away from bitcoin BTC$64,223.26. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), has climbed to a one-year high relative to the largest cryptocurrency, with the ratio reaching 0.0016.

Bitcoin and IGV traded largely in lockstep for years, but that relationship began to breakdown in May. IGV is now down only 1% in 2026, while bitcoin has fallen 29%. Their 20-day rolling correlation has also turned negative for the first time since May 2024.

IGV has rallied 40% from its April low, when fears of an AI-driven “SaaS apocalypse” swept the sector. The ETF is now just 13% below its all-time high, while bitcoin is around 50% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, was dragged into the software selloff after IGV dropped 40% from its fourth-quarter 2025 peak, reflecting the market’s tendency to treat bitcoin as a software-like risk asset.

History offers bitcoin bulls some encouragement. Similar negative-correlation episodes appeared during bitcoin’s 2018 bear market, the Covid shock in 2020 and China’s bitcoin mining ban in summer 2021. Each time, bitcoin eventually caught up and the correlation turned positive again.

The question is whether history repeats, or whether software’s breakout signals a lasting split between digital assets and technology equities.