Bitcoin is flashing the same warnings that have marked the end of past selloffs, and history suggests that has been a reason for patience rather than optimism.
Eight of 12 capitulation signals tracked by VanEck are currently in their zones, and all 12 hit those levels at some point over the past three months, according to the asset manager’s mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck.
The signals measure things that reach extremes when selling is heaviest, including bitcoin’s fall from its peak, miner economics and how many holders are sitting on losses.
But what has followed those readings is less encouraging: When eight to 12 indicators were flashing historically, bitcoin returned an average 12.8% over the following 90 days and 32% over 180 days. Both are below its broader historical averages of 15.2% and 36.3%, and the advantage showed up only over a one-year horizon.
Such signals fire when a reading sits in the extreme 15th percentile or below of its own history, with one exception. Price drawdown fires at anything past -35% rather than on percentile. At -49%, bitcoin’s drawdown sits in the 35th percentile of its history and would not fire on the percentile rule, which the firm said “would put us at 7 of 12 rather than 8 of 12.”
Previous troughs of -94%, -85%, -84% and -78% came in markets with no spot exchange-traded fund bid, a smaller institutional holder base, and major businesses that collapsed overnight (such as lending firm Celsius and crypto exchange FTX).
Bitcoin traded near $64,300 in Asian evening hours on Wednesday, roughly 49% below its all-time high. Thirty-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% annualized, against a long-run average near 80%, with the price holding between about $62,300 and $66,500 since recovering from a June 30 low near $58,500.
The calendar fits past bear markets. VanEck counted four completed cycles since 2011, with peak-to-trough declines averaging 11 months, or 12.7 months excluding the much smaller 2011 market.
Bitcoin entered the 10th month of its decline from the October 2025 peak in August, which places the next accumulation phase between September and November. The firm declined to pick a date within that range.
Miners are feeling it most. Daily revenue across the network is down 46% on the year, and mining difficulty has fallen 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as unprofitable machines switched off, the steepest drop since China banned mining in 2021.
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