Fed decision making comes into focus as bitcoin holds steady, bond yields surge

Bitcoin BTC$64,427.54 remains in its weeks-long $60,000 and $67,000 range in advance of today’s minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve interest-rate setting meeting.

After briefly climbing through $65,000 yesterday, the largest cryptocurrency has dropped about 0.5% since midnight UTC. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is little changed over the same period.

Softer economic data in recent weeks have reduced expectations of another Fed increase, which would normally pull bond yields lower and support risk assets, including crypto. In fact, government bonds crashed worldwide overnight, lifting yields to the highest levels in years and sending stock benchmarks lower.

The probability of no rate change in September is about 72%, according to traders on prediction market Polymarket. It’s about 67% on the CME’s Fedwatch tool.

The figures suggest investors are demanding a larger term premium rather than betting on rising interest rates. Brent crude oil, meanwhile, has risen to $91 per barrel, keeping inflationary risks alive.

Yield competition adds a headwind. A 30-year U.S. Treasury paying more than 5% gives investors a low-risk alternative to bitcoin, which pays no native yield. Still, gold, which also pays no yield, has gained 8% this month.

That suggests bitcoin is still treated as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a sovereign-risk or currency debasement hedge. A potential tailwind may be dollar weakness, which is generally supportive of crypto.

“Short-term USD gains remain a fade from our point of view,” Scotiabank analysts led by Shaun Osborne wrote in a recent investor note, according to Reuters. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

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