Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced

Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% on the day, as bulls attempt to break the bearish trend for the first time in months. Sentiment across the market has clearly shifted, but traders on prediction markets don’t appear convinced just yet.

Today’s move extends Bitcoin’s sharpest rally in five months, with yesterday’s performance being the strongest one-day jump since March 4 and its highest price since June 1.

Prediction markets turn crowd bets into live odds, and on Myriad, a market run by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, traders were leaning roughly 70% toward a dump to $55,000 just days ago. By Wednesday afternoon the odds had collapsed to a near coin flip: about 52% on the bullish $84K side, 48% on the bearish $55K.

But the skepticism isn’t uniform, and the odds will vary across markets. Polymarket’s flagship 2026 price market was pricing a 56% chance $BTC touched $55,000 before year-end and just 51% odds of a run to $75,000 as of last week. On Kalshi, traders gave Bitcoin only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August and 31% at $70,000—both thresholds the rally blew through on Wednesday. A separate Polymarket contract put $BTC above $75,000 for August at 47% on roughly $12 million in volume.

The near-term markets got squeezed while the year-end ones barely moved. Prediction markets have been setting volume records as more traders hedge real positions with them, which makes the Myriad flip less a forecast than a recap of who got caught blindsided.

The next line in the sand for Bitcoin traders sits at $70,284, the lower edge of a resistance band on Bitcoin’s chart. A daily close above it opens room toward $73,245; losing $68,000 drags Bitcoin back inside the range that’s trapped it since June, the same compressive wedge that preceded crashes in October 2025 and January 2026.

Myriad’s market doesn’t expire on a calendar. It resolves the moment Binance’s $BTC/USDT spot price touches either $84,000 or $55,000. The live odds on Myriad currently place a 52% chance on a bullish outcome, so despite Bitcoin’s impressive two-day run, traders currently appear—at best—cautiously optimistic.