What Do Bitcoin Options Markets Say About the Price? A Major Expiration Is Coming Up

Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, stated that the recent rapid rise in Bitcoin has significantly boosted market sentiment, and a noticeable recovery is being seen not only in BTC but also in different sectors of the cryptocurrency market. However, it was noted that as the pace of the rise slows, large investors in the options market have lowered their expectations regarding future price movements.

According to Adam, while the implied volatility (IV) of short- and medium-term options is rapidly declining, the IV level for these maturities remains only about 10% higher compared to two weeks ago. In medium and long-term options, the increase has fallen below 2%, indicating that investors expect more limited price fluctuations in the coming period.

According to Greeks.live data, approximately 40% of existing option positions will expire at the end of the month. A concentration of options with strike prices between $80,000 and $90,000 is particularly noteworthy. Adam also noted that the Bitcoin price has recently approached the region where high-volume transactions occur in the futures market, suggesting that these levels could constitute a significant resistance area for upward movement. However, it is assessed that if this region is breached, the high concentration of positions could increase upward pressure on Bitcoin.

*This is not investment advice.