Bitcoin’s Correlation With U.S. Stocks Hits Lowest Level Since FTX Collapse

Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities has fallen to its lowest point since the collapse of FTX in November 2022, a shift that suggests the cryptocurrency is increasingly moving on its own fundamentals rather than mirroring stock market sentiment. Data from Santiment, as reported by Crypto Briefing, shows the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market dropped to as low as -0.299 in December 2025 before recovering to around 0.18 in January 2026.

What’s Behind the Decoupling?

The decoupling marks a notable departure from the pattern seen during much of 2024 and early 2025, when Bitcoin frequently traded in tandem with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq. That relationship had led many analysts to classify Bitcoin as a risk asset, sensitive to the same macroeconomic forces that drive equity markets. However, the recent data indicates a fundamental shift in market behavior.

From late August 2025 to early 2026, Bitcoin’s price declined approximately 43%, while the S&P 500 gained about 7% over the same period. Gold, often viewed as a safe-haven asset, surged roughly 51% during that stretch. This divergence highlights how different asset classes are responding to distinct market drivers, with Bitcoin’s decline occurring amid what market participants describe as ongoing deleveraging following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

ETF Launch and Deleveraging Pressure

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 was a landmark event for the cryptocurrency industry, providing traditional investors with regulated exposure to Bitcoin. However, the aftermath has been more complex. While these funds initially attracted significant inflows, they also introduced new dynamics, including the potential for large-scale redemptions and increased sensitivity to market sentiment. The report suggests that the deleveraging process—where investors reduce borrowed funds or unwind positions—has been a key factor in Bitcoin’s price decline, even as equities have remained resilient.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the deepening decoupling carries several implications. First, it challenges the notion that Bitcoin always behaves as a risk-on asset. In certain conditions, it may act more like a store of value, similar to gold, or it may follow its own unique cycles driven by crypto-specific factors. Second, the reduced correlation means that Bitcoin may offer diversification benefits in a portfolio, though its high volatility remains a concern. Third, the ongoing deleveraging suggests that the market is still adjusting to the post-ETF landscape, and price stability may take time to emerge.

Market Context and Historical Parallels

The last time Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks was this low was during the FTX collapse, a period of extreme turmoil in the crypto industry. That event led to a sharp repricing of risk across digital assets, and Bitcoin’s subsequent recovery was driven by factors largely independent of equity markets. The current situation, while less dramatic, appears to be following a similar pattern of reduced co-movement, though the underlying causes are different—this time, the focus is on ETF-related flows and broader crypto market structure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s falling correlation with U.S. stocks signals a maturing market that is increasingly influenced by its own dynamics, including ETF flows, regulatory developments, and crypto-specific sentiment. While the decoupling may reduce the cryptocurrency’s appeal as a pure risk asset, it also opens the door for more nuanced investment strategies. As the market continues to evolve, investors should monitor these correlations closely, as they provide valuable insight into how Bitcoin is being positioned in the broader financial landscape.

FAQs

Q1: What does a negative correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks mean?
A negative correlation means that Bitcoin and U.S. stocks tend to move in opposite directions. When stocks rise, Bitcoin may fall, and vice versa. This indicates that the two assets are responding to different market forces, which can be a sign of decoupling.

Q2: Why did Bitcoin’s price fall while stocks rose?
The decline in Bitcoin’s price, despite a rise in stocks, is attributed to ongoing deleveraging in the crypto market, particularly following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This process involves reducing leveraged positions, which can lead to downward price pressure, while equities benefited from other macroeconomic factors.

Q3: Is Bitcoin becoming more like gold?
The recent price surge in gold and Bitcoin’s decoupling from stocks have led some analysts to compare Bitcoin to gold as a store of value. However, Bitcoin remains significantly more volatile than gold, and its behavior is still influenced by crypto-specific factors. The comparison is useful but not exact.