Bitcoin (BTC) at a Critical Junction After the Rally! Analysts Warn: The Continuation of the Rise Depends on These Two Events!

Bitcoin surged 24% in August, recording its strongest monthly gain since November 2024, before stabilizing around $78,000 following this sharp rise.

According to economists, high oil prices and rising US Treasury bond yields have limited further gains in $BTC. On the other hand, expectations for an interest rate hike in September have significantly increased following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole.

However, according to analysts, Bitcoin continues to hold onto critical support levels.

Bitcoin Holds Critical Support!

According to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin is holding onto its critical support level at $77,100 despite signals from the Fed indicating a more hawkish monetary policy.

According to Bitfinex’s latest Alpha report, $BTC experienced a sharp pullback last week after rising to $81,500, following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole.

However, despite this pullback, $BTC’s ability to hold above $77,100 indicates that the uptrend is not yet broken.

Spot Buying is Also Behind Bitcoin’s Rise!

Bitfinex analysts stated that the Bitcoin surge in August was not solely due to leveraged trading, but that actual spot market purchases also supported the rise.

At this point, analysts stated that there was a total net inflow of $924.5 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs during the week of August 24-28. Bitfinex added that liquidity concentrated in ETFs and stablecoins supports the uptrend in Bitcoin and the crypto market, but high inflation and expectations of future interest rate hikes could limit further gains.

At this point, the US employment data to be released on September 4th and the inflation data to be released on September 11th will be critical in terms of expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate decision in September.

Can $BTC Hold Above $80,000?

Although Bitcoin fell below $80,000 following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, it is holding onto the $77,100 support level.

However, questions remain about the sustainability of the price above $80,000. While Bitfinex notes that strong spot Bitcoin demand and a net inflow of $925 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs are supporting the market, some analysts are more cautious about the sustainability of the rally.

At this point, Greeks.live analyst Adam noted that there had been large inflows into ETFs, but this strong inflow series ended with a $202 million outflow on August 28th. The analyst stated that the net outflows from ETFs in the last few days, and the possibility of these outflows becoming permanent, could make it difficult for $BTC to hold above $80,000.

The analyst also discussed Strategy’s decision to resume $BTC purchases after a long hiatus. According to the analyst, Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases may support the price in the short term, but may not be enough to change the long-term trend on their own.

Macro Risks Persist!

Finally, the analyst noted that, as Bitfinex has also pointed out, the Fed’s hawkish stance and macroeconomic uncertainties are among the main risks for Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, these factors are putting additional pressure on investor confidence and the $BTC price. At this point, the analyst believes it’s too early to talk about a new strong bull trend without a sustained move above $80,000 in Bitcoin. ETF flows and Fed policy will be decisive in determining the short-term direction.

*This is not investment advice.