Bitcoin price risks $74K drop as 50-week EMA faces test

Bitcoin price extended its pullback toward $77,000 as rising oil prices, stubborn US inflation and higher Treasury yields reduced demand for risk assets. Technical charts now place $BTC near a major weekly support level, while short-term momentum remains bearish.

Bitcoin price action today

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin ($BTC) price traded near $76,800 at the time of writing, down from a 4-hour opening price of $77,230. The token reached $77,500 before sellers pushed it to a session low of $76,800.

The latest move extended a decline from the Sept. 4 local high near $82,280. Bitcoin has since formed a series of lower highs and lost the short-term support zone between $78,000 and $78,200.

The daily chart showed a small intraday recovery from a low of $76,563, but $BTC remained below its 20-day simple moving average at $78,601. A daily close below that average would keep short-term control with sellers.

Bitcoin still traded above its longer moving averages. The 50-day SMA stood at $70,673, the 200-day SMA at $70,058, and the 100-day SMA at $66,915. The arrangement keeps the broader recovery structure intact even as the latest rally loses momentum.

Chaikin Money Flow remained slightly positive at 0.02. However, the indicator fell sharply from its early September high, showing that buying pressure weakened during the retreat from $82,000.

Hot inflation and oil weigh on Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s decline came as US markets prepared for fresh consumer inflation data following a stronger producer-price report. US wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% from a year earlier, according to the Associated Press, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates.

Interest-rate futures placed the probability of a rate increase at about 67% on Sept. 11, according to Reuters. MarketWatch reported that the estimate briefly rose as high as 72% after the producer inflation release.

Higher borrowing costs tend to pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets because investors can earn better returns from government debt without accepting crypto-market volatility.

Oil prices added to those concerns. Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel after approaching $110 during the week as conflict in the Middle East threatened supply routes. Higher energy prices can feed into transport and production costs, making it harder for US inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% goal.

The global bond selloff pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield close to 5%, according to Reuters. The move continued even after the Treasury bought back $5.2 billion of longer-dated government bonds against an announced target of $6 billion.

Bitcoin indicators point to $76K support

The 4-hour chart remained bearish after $BTC moved below the Supertrend indicator. Supertrend resistance stood at $79,060, placing the first major recovery test between $79,000 and $80,000.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index fell to 34.25, while its signal line stood at 39.08. An RSI reading below 50 shows weak momentum, though the indicator is approaching the oversold threshold of 30.

Immediate support sits between $76,000 and $76,500. The lower edge also aligns with a visible liquidity cluster on the one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap.

A decisive move below $76,000 could expose $75,000 before attention turns to the $72,000–$74,000 range. Bitcoin’s rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $70,000 form a deeper support area if the correction expands.

Bulls need to recover $78,000 first. A close above the $79,060 Supertrend level would weaken the short-term bearish setup and open a path toward $79,800–$80,600.

The liquidation heatmap showed the largest nearby concentration of leveraged positions around $80,000, with another band close to $80,600. Price often moves toward areas with concentrated liquidity, but the heatmap does not guarantee that Bitcoin will reach either level.

Analysts watch the weekly close and short positions

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin was testing its 50-week exponential moving average. According to Pillows, a weekly close below the indicator could push $BTC toward $72,000–$74,000.

The weekly chart shared by Pillows placed the 50-week EMA near $77,000, making the current range important for Bitcoin’s medium-term direction. Holding the level would leave room for another attempt to regain $80,000, while a confirmed breakdown would weaken the recovery from the June low.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades said new short positions entered around $78,000 and remained profitable as Bitcoin approached the lower end of its $76,000 range. He also noted that funding rates were beginning to turn negative.

Negative funding means short traders pay long traders in perpetual futures markets. If Bitcoin reclaims $78,000, traders positioned for further losses could be forced to close their shorts, potentially adding momentum to a move toward the liquidity clustered near $80,000.

Failure to recover $78,000 would instead leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another test of $76,000. The upcoming US consumer inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 policy meeting remain the main macro catalysts for US crypto investors.