On Tuesday, the 15th of September, Bitcoin [$BTC] fell to a local low of $74,967, ahead of the impending rate hike news from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Yet, since that low, Bitcoin has rebounded by 9.21% in under a week.
As reported earlier, a combination of bearish news and long-term inflation worries did not deter $BTC bulls much.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Head of Global Macro, wrote that a new 4-year cycle could be underway. The crypto winter was ending, with inflation being a trigger for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin shaping up for the start of another bull run
For the first time since November 2025, Bitcoin has closed a weekly candle above its 52-week moving average. The previous time this bullish crossover occurred was in March 2023, triggering the bull run that went from $28k to $126k.
The 2023 cycle bottom tested the 2017-18 highs, and it might be that the 2026 cycle bottom tests the 2021 cycle highs too.
Long-term supply was growing, a sign of accumulation from strong hands. Supply in profit was also rising, presenting a threat that profit-taking could impact the upward momentum.
There is also the argument that sellers were exhausted and could only force a pullback as deep as $76k last week.
If this were true, a breakout past the $82.3k high from earlier in September could trigger the dense cluster of short liquidations in the $83k-$86k region. A combination of steady demand, seller exhaustion, and a run into dense short liquidations can result in a liquidation cascade and a price move higher.
The case for a sizable pullback
The seemingly market-wide consensus is that a bull run is beginning. It is possible that the price would move against the popular consensus to hunt down liquidity to the south.
A sell-off due to profit-taking does not have the potential for a deep retracement, as the price action in September has shown.
If such a pullback does arrive, a dip towards the $72.3k short-term holder realized price could be an opportunity for investors and swing traders to re-enter the market.
Final Summary
- The 52-week moving average has been breached, marking the start of another Bitcoin bull run.
- The cluster of short liquidations around $83k-$86k can be rocket fuel for a $BTC price move higher.
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