Is the market too optimistic when it says Bitcoin [$BTC] may have bottomed?
Technically speaking, $BTC is set to close September with its highest wick at a level representing an eight-month high of $87k, rebounding from the July low of $57k. With an ROI of 40%+ in the Q3 cycle so far, the market is growing bullish. Some traders are even calling for a $100k reclaim by the end of October despite the macro volatility around the FOMC.
However, the latest Glassnode report paints a different picture. Based on Bitcoin’s historical bear cycles, $BTC is still only some 30% below its cycle high.
This is comparatively a very shallow drawdown for Bitcoin, given that in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bear cycles, $BTC bottomed after drawdowns of over 80%. In essence, current correction is nowhere near the depth seen during previous major cycle bottoms.
Notably, if history is used as a guide, Bitcoin’s bottom could still be some time away. As the chart above highlights, another 90 days could be needed before $BTC reaches a potential cycle low. While this is not a confirmed forecast, it challenges the idea that a $57k low was the final bottom.
This is important because the market is already pricing in a volatile Q4. U.S. markets were hit by fresh macro FUD, with over $1 trillion wiped out across major asset classes in the past 24 hours as U.S.-Iran tensions reignited. Treasury yields have moved above 5%, while oil prices have pushed toward $90/barrel.
In this scenario, another rate hike or higher yields could quickly pressure the risk assets like Bitcoin. Thus, while Bitcoin’s technical recovery looks strong, could the market be pricing in the bottom too early?
Bitcoin’s on-chain recovery clashes with historical cycle signals
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is beginning to deviate from its historical cycle pattern.
A significant portion of this debate stems from the $BTC’s four-year cycle. In the past, the previous three cycle bottoms were reached roughly 365-406 days after their respective cycle tops. Since Bitcoin’s last cycle top was observed on the 6th of October, 2025, when $BTC hit $126k, this cycle suggests that a potential bottom could occur between the 6th of October and the 16th of November this year.
This timing naturally could support the market’s $100k+ year-end target, as a potential Q4 bottom would leave room for Bitcoin to recover sharply into the end of the year. Interestingly, it seems that large holders already appear to be positioning for this move.
As can be seen in the chart below, wallets containing 100-1,000 $BTC have been accumulating at a rapid pace. Specifically, since the 15th of July, these addresses have added 113,950 $BTC, increasing their holdings by 2.22% to around 5.24 million $BTC.
According to AMBCrypto, this kind of accumulation indicates that large players are using the current weakness to build exposure ahead of a potential Q4 rally.
From an on-chain view, this creates a clear divergence from Glassnode’s outlook. As the firm suggests, Bitcoin could still be about 90 days away from reaching a cycle bottom.
However, with accumulation picking up and the four-year cycle still holding, the current setup could point to a mid-Q4 bottom. This could then be followed by a potential year-end rally if conditions hold.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin could bottom in Q4, while large holders keep buying.
- Accumulation looks positive, but more downside is still possible.