Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, said that increasing pressure in the US bond market could become a strong bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. Farrell believes there are sufficient signals that Bitcoin has formed a sustained cycle bottom and that macroeconomic conditions are now beginning to support liquidity trends in the cryptocurrency market. According to the analyst, Bitcoin could surpass the $100,000 level before the end of 2026.
Speaking to Coinage, Farrell highlighted the relationship between rising US bond yields and the country’s fiscal outlook. Noting that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is over 120% and the budget deficit is around 6-7% of GDP, Farrell stated that high interest rates further increase the government’s borrowing costs. According to Farrell, this situation could lead the US Treasury to reduce the supply of long-term bonds and issue more short-term Treasury bills.
Farrell argued that the US Treasury’s financing of long-term bond buybacks with short-term bonds constitutes market intervention and could increase liquidity. According to the Fundstrat executive, banks absorbing the increased bond supply could support money creation in the private sector. Farrell believes this could, over time, lead to an erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power and pave the way for relatively better performance of rare assets like Bitcoin.
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The analyst also emphasized that this process might be a development unfolding over years rather than a sudden break. Farrell likened the monetary devaluation to a “slowly melting ice cube,” suggesting that in the long term, rare assets could come to the forefront during periods of dollar devaluation. He also considered Bitcoin’s more limited pullback during the recent bear market, compared to previous cycles, as a possible sign of this structural change.
“Bitcoin Could Still Surpass $100,000 in 2026”
Farrell does not rule out the possibility of a correction in Bitcoin in the short term. However, he believes that if Bitcoin falls by about 10 percent from current levels, strong buyers could re-emerge in the market. He stated that he had a target of $115,000 for Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, but he no longer expects this level to be seen in 2026. However, he believes that $100,000 could be surpassed.
Farrell also touched upon Bitcoin’s technical outlook, noting that the price rising above the 200-day moving average after remaining below it for an extended period is historically a positive signal. According to the analyst, a more significant development was Bitcoin’s clear break above the 50-week moving average a few weeks ago. Farrell believes this move could signal a shift in the long-term market regime and open the door for new capital inflows into Bitcoin from trend-following investment strategies.
Another development closely watched by the Fundstrat executive is the US Treasury’s next quarterly funding announcement. Farrell stated that if the Treasury reduces or becomes more aggressive in issuing 10- to 30-year bonds in the coming period, it could become a “very strong” catalyst for Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.