Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has announced a change in his view on the “four-year cycle” approach, long considered a fundamental point of reference in Bitcoin and the crypto market. Gambardello, who for years used the four-year cycle linked to Bitcoin halving events in his analyses, stated that he now believes the crypto market is primarily influenced by global economic expansion and contraction patterns, rather than a calendar cycle.
According to Gambardello, examining Bitcoin’s past rises and falls reveals a stronger correlation between price movements and the business cycle, tracked by indicators like the ISM PMI, rather than halving dates. The analyst argues that Bitcoin has weakened during periods of economic contraction since the first major bear market in 2011, while its upward trend has strengthened during periods when the business cycle has resumed expansion. Gambardello notes that many past Bitcoin halvings have coincided with periods of economic recession to expansion, suggesting that the perception of a four-year cycle may have originated from this.
According to the analyst, the current market cycle also raises questions about the classic four-year model. Gambardello stated that many investors expect lower levels around October 2026, but Bitcoin may have bottomed out in June 2026. He noted that this aligns with the transition of the economic cycle from contraction to expansion, making it difficult to explain the current movement using a calendar-based approach.
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Gambardello also noted that strong inflows into spot ETFs, expectations of a crypto-friendly political environment, and high market interest played a significant role in Bitcoin previously surpassing its all-time high. However, the analyst stated that he does not consider this rise to be the “true crypto bull market,” arguing that a stronger movement could begin in the coming period as economic expansion accelerates.
The analyst supported his thesis not only with Bitcoin but also with assets sensitive to economic growth, such as the copper-gold ratio and the Russell 2000. According to Gambardello, these assets weaken during periods of economic contraction and strengthen during periods of expansion. The cryptocurrency market, however, is located at the more extreme end of the risk curve, and therefore reacts to economic recovery more slowly than other asset classes. Gambardello believes that the sideways movement seen in the altcoin market, particularly outside of major cryptocurrencies, throughout 2026 can be explained by this delay.
Another point Gambardello highlighted was the end of the monetary tightening process. According to the analyst, after the Fed’s quantitative tightening ends in December 2025, a normalization process will begin in the markets, and the economic cycle will turn back towards expansion. Gambardello stated that their self-developed US Business Cycle Index also recently signaled expansion. He said that the index combines the monthly manufacturing surveys of five regional Fed banks and generates a signal of economic expansion if it remains above certain thresholds for three consecutive months.
The analyst also believes that AI-driven productivity increases could accelerate economic growth in the coming years. Gambardello stated that an economic environment similar to the strong productivity period of the 1990s could emerge, and that Bitcoin and crypto assets could play a significant role in this process with trends such as institutionalization, tokenization, and the AI economy moving onto the blockchain.
*This is not investment advice.