Bitcoin’s latest pullback has rattled many investors, but Matt Crosby is not one of them. The director of research and analytics at LookIntoBitcoin says on-chain data shows the bear market low is “essentially in.” He also thinks the next rally could move far faster than most people expect.
Crosby’s main evidence is a metric called realised cap HODL waves. It tracks how much of Bitcoin’s average purchase price is shaped by investors who have held their coins for at least three months. When that share climbs above 80%, it shows long-term holders are firmly in control and short-term speculation has dried up. According to Crosby, that reading “has always marked a Bitcoin bear market low,” and it has done so again.
Sellers Ran Out of Steam
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Crosby described the recent market as “a true dictionary definition of seller exhaustion.” Bitcoin faced a string of bad news:
- the Coldcard exploit
- the CLARITY Act being delayed and then rejected in the Senate
- miners selling Bitcoin to pivot toward AI
- treasury companies selling their holdings
Yet the price kept rising. Long-term holder supply has also started to fall, which Crosby reads as new capital stepping in to buy.
He sees no signs of an overheated market. Instead, he described a “healthy, very spot-driven rotation” of money out of stocks, bonds and commodities into Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin Can Move So Fast
Crosby pointed to how quickly Bitcoin recently climbed from $64,000 to $84,000. Because long-term holders own so much of the supply and rarely sell, each new dollar entering the market lifts Bitcoin’s market value by about $6.20, by his estimate. That means even a small shift of money out of an AI bubble or the bond market could send prices sharply higher.
Bitcoin as a Share of Global Capital
At around $87,000, Bitcoin made up roughly 0.32% of all invested global capital, below its peak of just under 0.5%. Because global capital keeps growing, Crosby said:
- Matching its previous peak share would take Bitcoin to about $134,000, above its $126,000 record.
- 1% of global capital would mean about $281,000 per coin today, and over $500,000 in 10 years.
- 3% of global capital could mean around $1.75 million within a decade.
Silver Comparison: $400,000
Crosby’s boldest scenario compares Bitcoin with silver. When silver bottomed in 2022, its market value was about $1 trillion. Bitcoin’s recent low was about $1.1 trillion.
Silver then rose about 593% over 3.4 years. Bitcoin usually moves faster because it trades around the clock, so Crosby adjusted that timeline to about 2.3 years. If Bitcoin repeats silver’s run over that period, it would reach about $400,000.
He said Bitcoin has tracked silver’s path with about 90% correlation so far. He admitted the target is “potentially” optimistic and declined to commit to an exact top, but said a global capital model lands close by at about $390,000.
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