Peter Brandt has been around long enough to see hundreds of Bitcoin (BTC) models come and go. This week, however, he singled out one that caught his eye.
“Analyst Colin Talks Crypto” shared the chart, which uses Tether’s market share to predict Bitcoin tops on an inverted log scale. Brandt did not just nod politely; he called it “outstanding” and “brilliant,” adding that the only thing that matters now is whether it actually predicts the next peak.
Colin’s setup goes back about a decade. Each time Tether dominance pushed against the upper curve of his chart, Bitcoin was close to reaching a major peak. This has been true at the double peak of 2021, the failed run at $70,000 in 2024 and the push over $100,000 last December.
He now expects another touch later this year, which, according to his calculations, could coincide with Bitcoin trading in the $140,000–$150,000 range around October.
But there’s a twist
The catch is that this model does not predict prices — it signals timing. It tells when the market looks overheated, not how high it will go. Regardless of other metrics, the analyst says he will take profits on the next touch, although he still cross-checks with sentiment, liquidity and his broader CBBI index.
For now, he argues that the mood is still too muted for this to be the cycle’s final top, which is why he thinks there is more room left to run.
It is unusual for Brandt to publicly praise a local indicator, and it raises the question of whether Tether dominance can really serve as a market compass. If Bitcoin hits Colin’s October target, this chart could transition from an experiment to a front-page reference.