Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes was bearish on BTC, but with the ongoing market rally, his tune is changing.
In a July 11 X post, Hayes called Bitcoin’s (BTC) breakout to new all-time highs a key turning point. The former BitMEX CEO had recently warned that the U.S. Treasury’s efforts to rebuild its cash balance at the Fed, known as the TGA refill, could pressure risk assets by draining liquidity from the market, dampening short-term sentiment.
However, the crypto market’s sharp move higher this week appears to have invalidated those fears. “I was slightly bearish in my last essay due to TGA refill. What changed? $BTC busted through ATH on good volume,” he wrote.
I was slightly bearish in my last essay due to TGA refill. What changed?$BTC busted through ATH on good volume$ETH is following and will outperform, get ready for a monster alt szn.
Mrkt thinks Trump will TACO on tariffs, so fuck it: @MaelstromFund is backing up the truck!— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 11, 2025
While BTC led the breakout, Hayes expects Ethereum (ETH) to take the lead from here, aligning with the asset’s steady climb over the past few days. Historically, such momentum often precedes capital rotation into altcoins, prompting the former executive to add that the long-awaited altcoin season is near.
“Get ready for a monster alt szn,” Hayes said.
Another factor driving his outlook is improving macro sentiment. He noted that markets expect President Trump to ease tariffs, which could support global trade and boost overall market performance.
The former BitMEX CEO previously said in May that BTC must cross the $110,000 mark for the altcoin season to truly kick off, and predicted the breakout to occur around June or early Q3. With that breakout now confirmed, he believes the next phase of the cycle is underway.
Long-term, Hayes has always been bullish on Bitcoin’s future. He expects BTC to reach around $250,000 by the end of the year and sees a possible path to $1 million by the end of Trump’s current term in 2028.
Hayes’ altseason forecast is already playing out, with momentum building across the market. Several assets such as SEI (SEI), SUI (SUI), and HBAR (HBAR) have jumped between 10% and 20% over the past 24 hours, with more than 98% of altcoins already outperforming Bitcoin in the ongoing rally.
While the Altcoin Season Index from CMC still leans toward Bitcoin dominance, sitting at 30/100, some analysts say the tide is already turning and that a much bigger season for the asset class is already underway.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has continued to shatter records throughout the day, trading at an all-time high of over $118,500 at the time of writing.