South Korea’s benchmark equity index, the Kospi, has reached a record high of 4,340 points, driven by prospects of shareholder-friendly policies and positive global market sentiment.
The new high has prompted one analyst to urge caution among bitcoin BTC$114,199.32 bulls, suggesting that the surging Kospi could mark the end of the BTC bull run, consistent with the historical relation between the two assets.
“Every time the Kospi has set a new record high, Bitcoin was trading close to its all-time high of the cycle. The last time this happened was back in 2021,” crypto analytics platform Alphractal said on X.
The chart indicates that the Kospi reached its peak in the second half of 2021. BTC also peaked closer to $70,000 in November that year, eventually falling into a year-long bear market.
A similar pattern emerged in late 2017, with concurrent peaks in the two assets. Also note the concurrent interim tops around June and July 2011.
Incremental signal
The pattern, though limited to support definitive conclusions, warrants attention, as it underscores the shared sensitivity of Kospi and BTC to global risk-on/risk-off flows and shifts in investor risk appetite and macroeconomic conditions.
When risk sentiment is positive, capital flows into emerging market equities, such as the Kospi, which is heavily export-oriented and influenced by global trade dynamics, as well as into riskier assets like bitcoin.
Conversely, during periods of heightened uncertainty or risk aversion, both tend to decline together. This close relationship highlights how Bitcoin, despite its unique characteristics as a digital asset, is becoming increasingly intertwined with broader financial markets and subject to similar economic forces.
“Now that the Kospi has reached a new all-time high, it serves as yet another incremental signal that the bitcoin cycle may be nearing its conclusion. Smart money flows continuously between major economies, stores of value, risk assets, and—sometimes—extremely speculative instruments, like memecoins, often without fundamentals,” Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, said.
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