Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick said the Fed may scale back expectations of future interest rate cuts ahead of this week’s interest rate decision.
Sosnick stated that markets have almost certainly priced in a 25 basis point cut, saying, “The Fed doesn’t want to disappoint the majority of people. However, they may dampen excessive optimism about future cuts. We could call this a ‘hawkish rate cut.’” Noting that inflation is still out of control, Sosnick noted that core PCE and core CPI are trending upward again.
As US-China trade talks continue, China’s launch of an antitrust investigation into NVIDIA has created market unrest. NVIDIA shares fell 2 percent, Texas Instruments 2 percent, and Analog Devices 2.5 percent. Sosnick commented, “Trade talks are volatile. While the US is exerting pressure, China is also seeking responses from various angles.”
“A unanimous decision to ease policy is unlikely,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note. “The committee’s split means the policy statement will be brief and to the point, offering little information on the timing and extent of further easing.”
*This is not investment advice.