Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a delicate balance following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision, where holding $115,200 is key to defining the next movement.
Glassnode reported on Sept. 18 that derivatives markets and on-chain data revealed a market poised for its next directional move.
BTC was trading at $117,649.40 as of press time, positioning above the cost basis of 95% of Bitcoin supply at $115.2k.
This threshold represents a critical line for maintaining demand-side momentum. Failure to hold this level risks a contraction toward the range between $105,500 and $115,200, which could further entrench selling pressure.
Derivatives markets signal fragile positioning
Perpetual futures markets have shown stabilization after a period of volatile pre-FOMC positioning.
Open interest declined from a cycle high of 395,000 BTC on Sept. 13 to 378,000 BTC following choppy price action, but has since stabilized between 378,000 BTC and 384,000 BTC.
The pullback to $115,000 after the rate cut triggered significant long liquidations, pushing liquidation dominance to 62%.
Current positioning reveals a fragile market structure with long-side max pain at $112,700 and short-side max pain at $121,600.
This narrow range suggests Bitcoin sits precariously between potential liquidation cascades, where downside moves risk triggering long positions while upside breaks could fuel short squeezes.
Record options activity highlights volatility
Bitcoin options open interest has reached a record 500,000 BTC, with Sept. 26 marking the largest expiry in Bitcoin’s history.
The contract’s strike distribution spans $95,000 puts to $140,000 calls, with max pain near $110,000 acting as a potential gravitational pull until expiry.
Options positioning shows consistent put selling below spot and intensified call buying above current levels.
This structure forces dealers to provide liquidity in both directions, potentially cushioning declines while fueling rallies through hedging flows.
Market structure reflects cautious optimism
The spot market cumulative volume delta shows mild negative deviations across major exchanges, indicating cautious sentiment despite the optimism surrounding the rate cut.
However, perpetual markets demonstrate a notable shift from extreme selling to balanced conditions. This movement reflects returned liquidity as buy-side flows offset persistent August sell pressure.
The convergence of record options positioning, stabilized perpetual flows, and Bitcoin’s position above critical cost basis levels suggests a market awaiting confirmation of its next major move.
Bitcoin’s capacity to stay above $115,200 will define the next major post-FOMC movement