Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment as it trades below the $120K zone, with price action tightening and bulls struggling to push through key levels. While the broader trend remains bullish, the short-term cooldown can continue before another leg higher.
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is still holding within a broad ascending channel that has remained intact for months. The recent correction from the $124K all-time high hasn’t broken the market structure yet, and the 100-day moving average remains below the price, offering additional support around $110K.
However, the rally has clearly lost momentum over the past few weeks, with the RSI turning sideways and the price failing to make new highs. Despite that, bulls still have the upper hand as long as the asset remains above the rising orange trendline.
A clean break above $124K would likely ignite fresh buying and push the cryptocurrency into price discovery mode, but if the support zone around $110K gives in, we may see a sharp drop toward the $100K–$104K region.
The 4-Hour Chart
Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, BTC is on the verge of breaking below the short-term ascending trendline, creating the ascending triangle with the $117K resistance zone. This could be an early warning sign of a potential trend shift or deeper pullback, especially as the price got rejected near the $117K–$118K resistance area multiple times.
Momentum has also weakened significantly, with the RSI slipping below 50 and showing a clear bearish divergence between recent highs. If the market fails to reclaim the broken trendline quickly, we could see further downside toward the $108K zone, followed by a potential bounce from the major demand area near $108K.
Onchain Analysis
Long Term Holder SOPR
On the sentiment side, the Long-Term Holder SOPR has been steadily declining, even as the price consolidates near local highs. This downtrend in SOPR actually indicates that long-term holders are reducing their spending activity. In other words, they’re selling less and choosing to hold onto their coins.
This often reflects growing confidence in further upside potential, as experienced market participants are less eager to take profits at current prices. It also suggests that supply-side pressure is easing, which could set the stage for a stronger breakout once demand kicks back in. If this holding behavior continues and is matched with bullish momentum, it could support the next leg up in Bitcoin’s rally.
