Bitcoin Q4 2025 Forecast: BTC Could Move $20K Amid Weak Uptober Rally?
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10x Research predicts Bitcoin could swing $20,000 in either direction during early Q4 2025.
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Bitcoin struggles around $115K resistance, with technical pressure creating uncertainty for traders.
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On-chain data shows whales selling 147,000 BTC this month, adding downward market pressure.
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Meanwhile, BTC critical support at $109,898 must hold, while breaking $115K may test $120K next.
Bitcoin is entering Q4 of 2025, which often carries a reputation for sparking strong rallies. But after falling over 10% from its all-time high of $124,000, 10x Research analysts warn that the usual bullish drivers are weak this year.
Adding to worries, 10x Research predicts Bitcoin could move $20,000 up or down, highlighting the market’s uncertainty.
Will the ‘Uptober’ Rally Hold?
October has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, often setting the tone for a bullish Q4. Historically, 10 out of 12 times, it has delivered gains, with an average price jump of 21%.
But as 10x Research points out, when everyone is leaning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to do the opposite. This year, the usual drivers behind October rallies are weaker, leaving traders more exposed to potential swings.
Bitcoin To Swing $20,000 Up or Down
According to the 10x research analysis, Bitcoin is approaching critical levels where technical pressure is rising. However, the price may break out, but the direction is uncertain.
Although BTC has fallen 3% this week, struggling to pass the $115K resistance. Therefore, analysts say early Q4 could see a swing of up to $20,000 in either direction.
On-Chain Data Adds More Pressure
Beyond charts and trading desks, on-chain data is also flashing warning signs. 10x Research points out that options markets show traders betting against a strong breakout, which could add more volatility if the market surprises them.
According to CryptoQuant, whales have sold 147,000 BTC in just a month, accelerating downward pressure.
One reason why Bitcoin prices have weakened.
Whales are net selling:
🔸 -147K Bitcoin since August 21.
🔸Total balance declining at the fastest monthly rate of the cycle. pic.twitter.com/w7mTI37BF2— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) September 23, 2025
Bitcoin’s Critical Levels to Watch
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $113,060, showing only slight movement in the past 24 hours. Analysts are watching $109,898 as a crucial support level, holding above it could keep the bull market alive, while dropping toward $105K may trigger larger declines.
On the upside, a breakout above $115K could pave the way for Bitcoin to test the $120K level,