- As Bitcoin climbed to yet another all-time high above $123,000 on Monday.
- Bernstein expects regulatory clarity in the US to be a major catalyst going forward.
- “Our conviction in blockchain and digital assets has never been higher,” the analysts wrote.
As Bitcoin climbed to yet another all-time high above $123,000 on Monday, analysts at brokerage and research firm Bernstein reiterated their bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency, forecasting a prolonged market upcycle that could take Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
In a note to clients released Monday, the analysts—led by Gautam Chhugani—characterised the current bull market as “long and exhausting,” driven not by retail speculation but by deep institutional involvement, a clearer regulatory landscape, and foundational shifts in how digital assets are integrated into the global financial system.
“Our conviction in blockchain and digital assets has never been higher,” the analysts wrote, underscoring their confidence in a structurally different and more sustainable rally compared to past cycles.
Institutional flows replacing retail speculation
The analysts highlighted that this cycle stands apart from previous ones due to the dominance of institutional adoption, a point underscored by the rapid rise of spot bitcoin ETFs, which now hold over $150 billion in assets under management.
According to Bernstein, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone accounts for $84 billion of that total.
They also pointed to growing corporate treasury allocations — such as Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation — as further evidence of a structural allocation trend that could support continued price appreciation toward the firm’s $200,000 target.
“Bitcoin will continue to emerge as the world’s hard-money reserve asset,” Bernstein wrote.
Regulation expected to accelerate US adoption
Bernstein expects regulatory clarity in the US to be a major catalyst going forward.
The firm said two pending legislative efforts — the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act — could help define jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while also establishing guardrails for stablecoins.
Such progress, the analysts argue, would position US platforms like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle as leading regulated entities in the crypto ecosystem, enabling wider participation from institutional investors.
Further, Bernstein said regulatory clarity would help reshore crypto trading activity, currently fragmented across offshore venues, and allow for the establishment of a US-based derivatives market for crypto futures and options.
Tokenisation and stablecoins seen as structural growth drivers
Beyond bitcoin, Bernstein expects broader blockchain adoption to be fueled by the tokenization of real-world assets — including money markets, equities, deposits, and credit.
This evolution would enable onchain capital markets offering instant, 24/7 settlement and programmable financial instruments, they said.
The analysts added that stablecoins, already approaching a $250 billion market, are playing a growing role in cross-border B2B and remittance payments.
Over time, they expect stablecoins to expand into mainstream retail and commercial payment systems, supported by improving compliance frameworks and distribution infrastructure.
Wallet adoption, currently estimated at around 50 million globally, could increase sharply as banks and businesses integrate blockchain-based systems, Bernstein said.