Bitcoin’s supply is almost entirely in profit, and analysts warn this could trigger a short-term correction. Historically, such high profitability has often been followed by brief market pullbacks.
According to analyst Ted Pillows, 99.3% of the entire Bitcoin supply is profitable at its present market price of about $121,900. When the BTC supply in profits was above 99% three times, the price corrected by between 3% and 10%.
This development comes when traders have been securing profits following prolonged rallies. Pillows claims that the same pattern is forming today. Hence, BTC may experience a temporary decline before resuming its overall upward trend.
CryptoQuant data highlights that the price and the percentage of coins in profit move in tandem with Bitcoin. Nearly all holders are back in the black, signaling stronger investor confidence, although the rapid surge raises the risk of market overheating.
Bitcoin sentiment strengthens as optimism builds
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 63, reflecting growing market optimism. Analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin is approaching a new all-time high, though sentiment has not yet reached euphoric levels.
He described the market mood as “optimistic but measured,” supporting BTC’s potential uptrend. Standard Chartered projects BTC could reach $200,000 on sustained ETF momentum. Historically, extreme greed levels above 80 have preceded major tops, but with the index now at 63, there may still be room for further gains before sentiment overheats.
“At every previous top, we consistently moved into extreme greed territory,” Darkfost said, implying that the market has not yet overheated. Such a combination of robust on-chain statistics and an increase in investor sentiment is a complex picture.
Typically, when the level of profitability is high, it leads to significant profit-taking and price corrections. On the other hand, the lack of extreme greed may indicate that Bitcoin still has a chance to recover. To support this view, Bitcoin ETFs experienced record weekly inflows of $3.2 billion in 2025. This reflects strong institutional interest and renewed market confidence.
As long as sentiment rises steadily but never reaches the state of euphoria, BTC may have a leg higher to another all-time high. BTC price is consolidating around $121,900. A correction would not be completely bearish, but it would likely be a healthy reset following months of gain.
Citi Sees Bitcoin hitting $133K in 2025 on ETF inflows
Citigroup projects that BTC will end 2025 near $133,000, another all-time high. That would be a relatively modest 8.75% gain from its current price of around $122,350.
The bank’s base case is for steady growth led by strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising digital asset allocations from treasuries. As of Saturday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs held more than $163.5 billion in BTC. Citi is forecasting new inflows of approximately $7.5 billion by year-end, which would provide further support for demand.
BTC remains undervalued compared to the price of gold when adjusting for volatility, a team of JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said. The Bitcoin-over-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, with Bitcoin now absorbing about 1.85 times the risk capital as gold, they wrote in a report on Wednesday.
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