Bitcoin Keeps Breaking Records, But Each Halving Cycle Delivers Smaller Gains
Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical price trajectory highlights a clear pattern. While the asset has consistently climbed to new highs after each halving, the gains have diminished.
In fact, new research revealed that “the degree of post-halving price gains has compressed over time since the second halving.”
Returns Are Shrinking Fast
Halvings, which reduce the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation, have slashed block rewards by 87.5% since 2012 – from 25 BTC to the current 3.125 BTC. This has fueled scarcity narratives that have long supported upward price momentum. Over this period, Bitcoin’s value has surged more than 9,110-fold, hitting $109,000 on September 1, 2025. A month later, the crypto asset has risen above $120,000.
Despite this, CoinGecko stated that the magnitude of returns post-halving has waned. The second halving cycle in 2017 delivered peak gains of 29x, the 2021 cycle dropped to 6.7x, and the latest run in 2025 has seen a comparatively modest 93.1% increase.
Interestingly, the cycle’s rhythm changed when Bitcoin posted a record $73,400 in March 2024 – months before the fourth halving -challenging historical expectations. Meanwhile, market activity has exploded, as evidenced by daily trading volumes surging from approximately $20 million in 2013 to nearly $30 billion in 2025.
This has not deterred publicly listed companies from increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset. As of October 3rd, 1,040,061 BTC was held by almost 200 listed firms, which is almost 5% of the total BTC supply. Strategy leads with 640,031 BTC. According to data compiled by Bitcoin Treasuries, this represents 63.2% of all corporate-held Bitcoin, and added another 4,048 BTC on September 2.
Several new companies are making significant moves into Bitcoin. Twenty One, backed by Tether, Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald, and SoftBank, has purchased 43,514 BTC since May. It has now become the third-largest corporate holder. Meanwhile, US-based healthcare firm KindlyMD expanded its holdings through a merger with Nakamoto BTC Holdings, and added 5,765 BTC. It had also announced plans to raise $5 billion for treasury growth.
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Internationally, organizations like MetaPlanet in Japan and Treasury BV in Europe are building sizable Bitcoin treasuries, with Treasury BV raising $147 million to acquire more than 1,000 BTC.
Bitcoin’s Backbone Strengthens
While institutional holdings climb, the network itself has seen remarkable expansion in computational power. The Bitcoin network’s mining hash rate has been on a steady upward trajectory, as participation from both individual miners and institutional players has kept growing. Over the past year alone, the hash rate surged 88%, from 670 million TH/s to 1.266 ZH/s.
Under the Trump administration, the US mining ecosystem has expanded, aided in part by the relocation of Chinese mining hardware manufacturers such as Bitmain, Canaan, and MicroBT to the US, spurred by tariffs and regulatory pressures.
Meanwhile, domestic firms including HIVE, Hut 8, Marathon, and CleanSpark are increasingly prioritizing alternative energy sources for new facilities. Adding to the momentum, Eric Trump recently co-founded American Bitcoin Corp, which debuted on the Nasdaq.