Model Confirms Bitcoin's Decline! "BTC Fails to Break Through 2017 Trendline, Risk Increases for Sub-$100,000!"

While the massive drop experienced on Friday is being settled as Black Friday in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins are experiencing a recovery.

While BTC has recovered to $114,000 and Ethereum (ETH) to $4,100, one analyst noted that Bitcoin could fall below $100,000.

Market analyst Omkar Godbole said that Bitcoin risks falling below $100,000 after failing to break above its key trend line for the third time, according to Coindesk.

Bitcoin could drop below $100,000 after failing to break the long-term trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 peaks for a third time, according to the analyst.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s three consecutive failures could be seen as a pattern rather than a coincidence, and that this pattern has become the resistance that limits Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

At this point, the analyst said Friday’s crash was the third instance of bulls failing to hold above the critical trend line drawn from the 2017 and 2021 highs. This increases the risk of Bitcoin experiencing a deeper decline to $100,000 or below.

“Bitcoin has failed three times to break above the long-term trend line connecting the 2017 and 2021 peaks, reaffirming a medium-term downtrend.

This trendline is acting as a key resistance in the current bullish cycle and technically, three failures form a pattern.”

The analyst also noted that the long-wick candles formed throughout July, August and October indicated a significant loss of upward momentum, while the monthly MACD histogram remained lower compared to the December-January rally.

As a result, the analyst noted that the upward movement in these indicators has weakened and is signaling weakness around the historical trend line. Bitcoin failed to hold above the trend line on its third attempt, making the resistance zone a key battleground for the cycle.

“The MACD histogram also remains in positive territory, but at a lower level than in the December-January rally, suggesting weakening upward momentum.”

The analyst recently noted that in the event of a potential downside, the primary support level is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $107,000. A break below this level could send the price falling below $100,000. Conversely, the analyst pointed to $121,800 for a bullish rally. “Bitcoin clearly needs to break above $121,800 to enter an uptrend,” he said.

*This is not investment advice.