Analyst: Bitcoin Drop Near $101,700 Could Confirm a New Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) took a big bearish shift this past weekend, with its price dipping below $104,000 on Friday October 17th, after days of zigzagging between $116,000 and $108,000.

This drop put the market in “extreme fear” for the first time since April, leading many observers to speculate on how long the bull cycle will last, with one warning that more losses are coming.

A Critical Line in the Sand

In his “Big Sunday Report,” crypto trader Dr. Profit told his over 439,000 followers on X that they should have used the 115–125k zone to build short positions, warning that the market is now “extremely bearish.”

He wrote that he had been “flagging” that area “to add shorts and sell” since the end of August, noting that BTC reached “126k, 1k more than my max top scenario of 125k” before dropping on October 10, when it went as low as $101,000 on some trading platforms.

The analyst singled out market psychology as central, writing plainly that:

“Markets are driven by greed, currently I have rarely seen so much greed in the market as now, and I am speaking about both the bear and bullish side.”

His setup hinges on a specific technical threshold: a decisive break below $101,700.

“By breaking below $101,700 Bitcoin will break below its magic bull market line which would finally confirm a bear market and silence those bulls once for all!” wrote Dr. Profit.

The post also talks about liquidity mechanics as a cause, saying that recent late-entering shorts, liquidations near $116,500, and the packed positioning of short-term holders have made the price structure weak.

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Furthermore, the analyst used the $112,500 short-term holder realized price to show that a lot of recent buyers had lost money and could put more pressure on the market if BTC drops another 5–10%.

Sentiment, Macro Events and Market Structure

This weekend’s price action echoed that caution. At the time of writing, CoinGecko data showed that the main cryptocurrency was trading around $110,700, which is up 3.5% in the last 24 hours but down the same amount over the past seven days. The 14-day drop is close to 10.6%, and the 30-day dip is smaller, at 4.1%.

Doctor Profit’s warnings arrive as broader sentiment has turned sour. On October 17, reports indicated that the Fear & Greed Index was at its lowest point since April and that about $900 billion in market value had been lost in the past few days. Some analysts say that the medium-term uptrend is still going strong if key supports hold, while others say that liquidity operations linked to ETFs and leveraged positions make the market open to big directional moves.