Bitcoin (BTC)’s price has been determined by the four-year halving cycle. These halvings, which occur every four years, shape Bitcoin’s price movements, both upward and downward.
But this era may be over.
K33 Research stated in its latest report that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year bull-bear cycle may be coming to an end. This suggests that Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycles are losing their former strength as mining rewards decline, and macroeconomic factors are increasingly driving the price.
K33 Rsearch noted that Bitcoin has traditionally followed a predictable upward pattern to date, reaching all-time highs in the next year following four annual halving events seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
According to historical data, Bitcoin has typically peaked approximately 1,060 days after the market bottom, indicating a potential peak by mid-October 2025 if the halving cycle holds true.
However, K33 analysts argue that the halving trend is breaking down as Bitcoin evolves into a more stable financial asset and is widely adopted by institutional investors.
“The impact of halvings is significantly less today than in the past.
In previous years, halving events triggered surges by causing sudden supply shocks. But now, expanding institutional access, increased ETF access, and growing government interest have fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
However, macroeconomic forces have become more influential and important in Bitcoin’s price.”
As a result, according to K33 Research’s report, investors should focus on macro events such as inflation, interest rates, and global political tensions, which have been affecting the BTC price more recently, rather than focusing largely on the halving event.
*This is not investment advice.