So far, “Uptober” has not been living up to its name this year, and Finbold’s AI prediction agent suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to slip even further by Halloween.
The crypto is currently trading at around $111,280, having suffered a monthly drop of 1.48% as a result of mounting selling pressure and weakening institutional flows.
However, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin has seen some modest gains on the 24-hour front, gaining 1.47% following the news that President Donald Trump would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.
The market sees the meeting as a sign that the strained U.S.-China relations could relax a little as we head toward the end of the month. What’s more, the timing coincides with the ongoing trade discussions in Malaysia, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Bitcoin market dynamics
Beyond macro developments, JPMorgan has announced plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) as loan collateral globally by late 2025, as reported by Bloomberg.
This move could unlock billions in liquidity and reduce selling pressure by allowing holders to borrow against their positions.
Furthermore, U.S. inflation data showed the September consumer price index (CPI) rising 3% year-over-year, below the 3.1% forecast, fueling speculation that the Fed may slow rate hikes.
However, Bitcoin holders are now directing attention to the October 30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “meeting-by-meeting” guidance approach has left room for a lot of short-term uncertainty.
BTC technical analysis
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin is somewhat mixed. It has managed to reclaim its 200-day simple moving average (MA) at $108,303 and is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $120,864, but resistance near $120,000 could trigger profit-taking if not supported by strong volume.
At the same time, the Ichimoku Base Line, an indicator measuring stable support and resistance levels, sits at $114,901, remaining neutral and indicating trader indecision, while the 20-day volume-weighted moving average of $113,107 reflects selling sentiment.
Overall, Bitcoin is caught between short-term bullish momentum and medium-term resistance, with a break above $114,000 potentially leading to new gains and a failure to do so likely to keep the price bound in its current levels.
AI BTC price prediction 2025 Halloween
Making the result of this tug-of-war even more uncertain, Finbold’s AI prediction agent sees the world’s largest crypto sliding further in the Halloween window (October 24–31). Namely, combining the outputs from three large learning models (Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Grok 3), the machine learning algorithm projected an average BTC price of exactly $110,000, implying a 1.17% decline from the current price.
The three LLMs were not unanimous in their forecast. Grok 3 was actually bullish, believing the price could go up by 0.63% to $112,001.
On the other hand, Claude Sonnet 4 was the most bearish, forecasting a 2.51% slide toward $108,500. Somewhere in the middle but still pessimistic was GPT-4o, which sees the crypto pulling back 1.62% to $109,500.
Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin heading into Halloween 2025 remains uncertain, with sentiment divided between modest optimism and lingering caution. While institutional adoption and improving macro conditions could provide a floor for prices, a mixed technical picture and resistance near $120,000 continue to weigh on momentum.
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