Despite a decline in stock price and a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, may have a 70% chance of being added to the S&P 500 index before the end of the year, according to crypto market intelligence company 10X Research.
Strategy is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, which are expected to include an estimated $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin (BTC) accounting.
A profitable quarter would mean a 60%–70% probability that the stock would be included in the S&P 500 effective Dec. 19, according to a Wednesday report from 10X Research.
“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report said. “The October 30 earnings release, which could reignite speculation around the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision — a scenario we assign a roughly 70% probability.”
While investor sentiment around the stock remains “washed out,” the earnings report presents an “obvious catalyst” for Strategy, 10X said.
Bitcoin slowdown and valuation strain
The prediction comes despite broader concerns over the sustainability of digital asset treasuries (DATs), as several companies have seen their market net asset value (mNAV) fall below key thresholds this year.
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The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto holdings. An mNAV above 1 allows a company to raise funds by issuing new shares to accumulate digital assets. Values below 1 make it much harder to expand capital and holdings.
Several DATs saw their mNAVs slip below this key level, effectively shutting down their ability to raise funds for further purchases. The firms included Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI) and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV).
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Crypto market liquidity will return at “this point” of the cycle
Strategy has slowed its Bitcoin purchases over the past month. The company only acquired 778 Bitcoin during October, one of its smallest monthly hauls, down 78% from the 3,526 BTC it bought in September.
Despite the slowing Bitcoin acquisitions and a significant recent market correction, this may be “precisely the point” of the crypto market cycle when “liquidity returns and outsized moves take shape,” according to 10X Research.
“With the NAV premium largely unwound, which caused $18 billion in losses for investors and volatility beginning to pick up again, the risk-reward dynamic is no longer about bracing for downside — it’s about preparing for what comes next.”
Despite the favorable outlook, Strategy received a “B-” credit rating from S&P Global Ratings, placing it in the speculative, non-investment grade territory often associated with “junk bonds,” despite having a positive outlook on its stock price.
This marks the first time a Bitcoin‑treasury-focused company has received an S&P Global assessment, establishing a new potential benchmark for traditional finance participants evaluating crypto firms.
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