Coinbase (COIN) is set to report third-quarter earnings Thursday after market close, and Wall Street is largely expecting a beat on revenue.
According to FactSet, analysts estimate the crypto exchange will post earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 — quadruple the $0.28 from Q3 last year — and revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the same period of 2024.
But the optimism is far from uniform. Analysts at JP Morgan, Barclays and Compass Point agree on strength in blockchain rewards, USDC yields and trading activity, but split sharply on what it means for profitability and how much future value Coinbase could unlock from its Layer-2 blockchain, Base.
JP Morgan’s Kenneth Worthington is the most bullish of the group, upgrading Coinbase to “Overweight” and laying out a $404 price target for December 2026. His thesis leans heavily on Coinbase’s exploration of a Base token. If launched, Worthington believes the token could command a $12 billion to $34 billion market cap, with Coinbase retaining as much as 40%, potentially adding $14 to $42 per share in equity value.
He also sees upside from Coinbase’s efforts to segment USDC customers through its subscription product, Coinbase One. By limiting stablecoin yield rewards to paying members, Worthington estimates Coinbase could add up to $1 per share in earnings annually, depending on customer behavior.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, which has an Equal Weight rating on the company, shares the positive revenue outlook but takes a more tempered approach. He sees adjusted EBITDA coming in 6% above consensus, driven by retail trading and stronger-than-expected USDC-related interest income.
He estimates total Q3 transaction revenue at $1.05 billion, topping Street forecasts, and models $771 million in subscription and services revenue, above management guidance. However, he lowers his price target to $361 from $365, citing broader multiple compression in the market.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel is more skeptical. While he acknowledges Q3 results will likely come in modestly above expectations, he maintains a “Sell” rating. His concern centers on Coinbase’s shift toward lower-margin subscription revenues. Engel argues that USDC and staking payouts to users eat into profitability, and that investors may be underestimating the impact. He also warns of slowing retail activity in the back half of the quarter and believes the acquisition of derivatives platform Deribit — while strategically interesting — faces rising competition from regulated U.S. venues like CBOE.
Notably, Engel is silent on the Base token potential that JP Morgan touts, suggesting less conviction or visibility into that long-term play.
One area of agreement: USDC is becoming an increasingly important profit center. All three firms highlight how Coinbase benefits from its partnership with Circle (CRCL) and exposure to growing stablecoin balances. But again, the analysts diverge on how much of that revenue Coinbase can keep as it tweaks reward structures and attempts to funnel users into paid tiers.
As Coinbase pushes further into subscription services, on-chain infrastructure and derivatives, Thursday’s earnings report will serve as a test, not just of its recent performance, but of which vision of the company’s future proves more accurate.