The Bitcoin (BTC) power law, which places BTC at a “fair value” of $142,000, suggests that the price of BTC is getting ready to burst to the upside, according to author and analyst Adam Livingston.
Bitcoin’s upper band price by December 31, 2025, is projected at about $512,000, while the fair-value price sits at about $142,000, with the low end of the range coming in just north of the $50,000 level, Livingston said.
Price “hugging” the fair value line since March 2024 is unusual and suggests that Bitcoin is ready to explode higher, Livingston said. He added:
“Every previous time BTC did this, one of two things happened: It exploded upward because it had been underpriced relative to its long-term power law, or it briefly dipped into the lower band and then ripped vertically, harder than before.”
The bullish price prediction comes amid lowered BTC forecasts from analysts and falling crypto prices, raising investor fears that the next bear market has already started.
Market analysts and crypto industry executives lower BTC price forecasts
Several investment firms have lowered their BTC price predictions following a historic market crash in October that took the price of BTC below $100,000, a critical psychological price level.
Galaxy lowered its 2025 end-of-year forecast for Bitcoin from $180,000 to $120,000 on Wednesday, citing the October market crash, lower volatility due to market maturation, and investors rotating into competing narratives like AI.
“If bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower,” Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, said.
Thorn added that the crypto market crash in October “materially damaged” the bullish price trend in the short-term, but said he remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price action.
Cathie Wood, the founder of investment firm Ark Invest, also lowered her long-term BTC price forecast by $300,000 due to stablecoins eroding Bitcoin’s market share by satisfying demand for a store-of-value asset in emerging economies.