Bitcoin trades 9% above the ETF realized price, as data shows a narrowing profitability and shifting trends from 2024 to 2025.
In a post on X, crypto analyst JA Maartunn reported that the realized price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has climbed to $86,680. This places Bitcoin’s current price at approximately 9% above the average cost basis of ETF investors.
For those unfamiliar, the realized price reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by ETF investors. It serves as a key metric to gauge whether institutional holders are in profit or at a loss, helping analysts interpret market trends.
Bitcoin ETF Historical Trend Predicts What Could Come Next
Since early 2024, ETF investors have moved through several Bitcoin cycles. In March, when Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $73,000, ETF realized prices were just below the spot price, resulting in slight profitability.
By April and May, ETF realized prices rose into the $60K+ range, and MVRV improved as early ETF buyers gained traction.
During the mid-2024 consolidation, when Bitcoin was below $70,000, ETF realized prices continued to rise steadily. Notably, realized prices traded above the spot price in July, indicating an MVRV ratio of 0.94 to 0.97 before a minor recovery—one of the few times ETF holders were underwater.
Meanwhile, from late 2024 to early 2025, a major breakout occurred. Bitcoin surged above $100,000, reaching a peak of around $109,000. During this period, ETF realized prices reached the low-$70K range, driving MVRV above 1.4 and signaling strong profitability.
By mid-2025, despite price volatility ranging from $90,000 to just below $116,000 due to profit-taking, ETF realized prices continued to rise gradually, indicating ongoing dip buying.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $126,000 in October, but the realized price did not exceed $87,000, yielding a positive MVRV of 1.44.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near $ 95,000, the ETF realized price is around $ 86,000, and MVRV is close to 1.1, suggesting that ETF holders have only a thin profit margin left—signaling stability but weakening momentum.
What this Means for Bitcoin
Notably, the ETF MVRV is a risk gauge for ETF holders. If the ETF MVRV falls below 1.0, it means that ETFs are holding Bitcoin at a loss, increasing the likelihood that they may sell to cut their losses and potentially accelerate the ongoing dip.
Conversely, if ETF managers treat dips as buying opportunities, as happened in 2024, renewed accumulation could quickly reverse the sell-off and push BTC higher.
Meanwhile, spot ETF flows suggest consolidation, as a $524 million inflow on November 11 was followed by consecutive outflows of $278 million, $866 million, and $492 million from November 12 to 14.
Research from The Kobeissi Letter attributes the recent downturn to structural pressures rather than weakening fundamentals, noting the mid-October sell-off stemmed from institutional withdrawals. The analyst expects stabilization once excess risk is cleared, hinting that market bottoms may be forming.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju similarly notes that Bitcoin remains outside bear market territory as long as it holds above $94,635, the average cost basis for 6–12 month holders.