Bitcoin’s steep sell-off might have finally run its course, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, who argues the pullback follows a familiar pattern and is likely nearing exhaustion.
Bitcoin BTC$93,286.25 plunged below $90,000 on Tuesday, extending a drawdown that’s erased nearly 30% from the currency’s all-time high above $126,000 set in early October. The latest leg lower marks the deepest pullback since last year’s introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., and has stirred debate about whether the largest cryptocurrency is entering the bear market phase of its typical four-year cycle.
“I see the recent sell-off as being nothing more than (a fast/painful version of) the third one of the past couple of years, of nearly exactly the same magnitude,” Kendrick wrote in a Tuesday note to clients.
As part of his thesis, Kendrick highlighted key sentiment and valuation metrics that have now reset to levels historically associated with market bottoms. One of those is bitcoin treasury firm Strategy’s (MSTR) modified net asset value (mNAV) — a gauge of the firm’s bitcoin holdings relative to its share price — which has dropped to parity at 1.0.
“A number of other metrics have collapsed to absolute zero levels,” he said, suggesting seller exhaustion and capitulation. “This is enough to signify the sell-off is over.”
“A rally into year-end is my base case,” he concluded.
His outlook echoed recent commentary from analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex. They noted that the pace of short-term holder realized losses begun to slow with onchain capitulation signals emerging, typical markers of a market bottom forming.
BTC bounced to just shy of $93,000 on Tuesday, up 3.8% from the overnight lows.