Bitcoin ‘Cycle Fracture’ Raises Fears Of 2026 Drop Toward The $30000 Zone

Bitcoin is entering one of its most important moments in years as analysts warn that November through December could determine whether the crypto market continues its bull run or slips into a long bear phase.

Several technical patterns from past cycles have returned, raising the question everyone is asking: Did Bitcoin already peak at $126,000 in October?

Related: Bitcoin Price Rebound Prospects as BTC Mined Crosses 95% of 21 Million Cap

The Bear Case: Signs the Cycle May Be Finished

Bitcoin may have already topped for this cycle, here’s why:

1. A Close Below the 50-Week Moving Average

Bitcoin recently closed below its 50-week simple moving average, a level that has historically marked the end of previous bull markets. Each time this happened in earlier cycles, Bitcoin entered a downtrend that lasted between five and eleven months, eventually forming the next bear-market bottom.

If history repeats, a new low could form sometime in late 2026, potentially in the $30,000–$40,000 range.

2. Long-Term Trendline Suggests a $126K Cycle Top

A major resistance trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks perfectly aligns with Bitcoin’s July–October performance this year. This trendline caps the bull run at around $126,000, suggesting the October high may have been the final top of the cycle.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s monthly MACD indicator has flashed a bearish cross, a signal that has previously led to major corrections.

The Bull Case: Why This Cycle May Not Follow the Old Rules

Despite the bearish signals, there are strong arguments that this cycle may break the usual patterns. Changes in macroeconomics, market structure and adoption have made this cycle very different.

1. Falling Interest Rates Could Boost Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin has historically risen when U.S. interest rates fall. With the Federal Reserve now beginning a new rate-cutting cycle, bulls argue that Bitcoin could gain significant momentum in 2026 as liquidity returns to markets.

2. This Cycle Already Broke Multiple Historical Patterns

Several things have already happened this cycle that never happened before:

• Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the halving
• The yearly candle that should have been strongly green is currently red
• No full altcoin season has emerged yet
• Institutional ownership of Bitcoin has tripled since 2021

With so many unusual changes in market structure, bulls argue that assuming a textbook four-year cycle may be a mistake. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has slipped below the $90k mark.

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