Bitcoin Price Rebound Prospects as BTC Mined Crosses 95% of 21 Million Cap
Bitcoin slipped to $90,200, pressured by renewed institutional rotation and thin weekend liquidity. The retreat comes as TheBlock data confirmed the network has mined over 19.95 million BTC, pushing issued supply beyond 95% of the hard-coded 21 million cap for the first time.
Network data shows that fewer than 1.05 million BTC remain to be mined. The milestone follows the fourth halving cycle completed in 2023, with the next supply cut scheduled for April 2028.
On-chain data trends also show that 230.09 BTC permanently unspendable due to genesis-era constraints and early script anomalies.
Bitcoin’s supply is designed to reduce progressively in halving events that occur every 210,000 blocks. The April 2024 halving reduced miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, halving daily miner output to roughly 450 BTC versus the previous 900 BTC. Earlier halving cycles, in 2012, 2016, and 2020 had dropped block rewards from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC, and 6.25 BTC respectively.
The last of the remaining 5% of Bitcoin’s supply is expected to be mined around 2140.
Price Analysis: $102K Resistance Caps Market at $90K
Despite the bullish supply data, market structure remains bearish. Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the price has decisively lost the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $102,800. This breakdown has flipped the key $102,000 level from a support zone into a formidable resistance barrier.
The Parabolic SAR prints above current BTC price, confirming the persistent downside pressure.
The 50-week SMA at $102,810—lost decisively last week—has flipped into resistance, while the 100-week SMA at $83,303 emerges as the next deeper support target should selling resume.
The RSI sits at 39.49, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling exhaustion. Meanwhile, Bull-Bear Power (BBP) prints a deep negative read at –25,330, consistent with capitulation-phase selling. Historically, such extremes have preceded multi-week relief rallies.
On the upside, Bitcoin price must retake $98,500 and $102,000 levels to end the short-term bearish dominance. Bears could force further declines towards $90,000 and potentially $83,000, if negative macro sentiment persists.
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