Citigroup Warns of Bitcoin Halving-Season Chill as Prices Sink, ETF Outflows Grow

Wall Street bank Citigroup said crypto’s October futures wipeout shattered sentiment, sparking nearly $4 billion in bitcoin BTC$86,155.33 exchange-traded fund outflows and erasing year-to-date gains.

With fresh flows drying up, bitcoin has slipped back toward the average cost basis of ETF holders and is trading more like Citi’s bear case than its base scenario.

The bank said long-term holders are increasingly uneasy as the market enters the historically weak second year of the halving cycle, with on-chain data showing older supply moving and large wallets trimming positions.

Risk appetite has evaporated across majors since the early-Oct. flash crash tied to broader macro stress, leaving bitcoin underperforming its usual drivers and lacking near-term catalysts unless equities rebound or Washington’s digital-asset legislation advances, analyst Alex Saunders wrote in the Friday report.

Interest hasn’t disappeared, Saunders said, but long-term holders are defensive and newcomers see little reason to step in while bitcoin trades below key technical levels.

Saunders expected $7.5 billion in ETF inflows by year-end, but negative flows now place bitcoin near the bank’s $82,000 bear-case view.

The firm sees $80,000 as a pivotal level for ETF holders and says a regulatory breakthrough next year could restore demand, keeping its 12-month targets unchanged at $25 billion in flows and a bitcoin price of $181,000.

Bitcoin was trading around $86,500 at publication time.

Read more: Bitcoin Weakness Sends a Warning to Stocks, but Liquidity May Soon Turn, Citi Says