BTC vs ISM: Analysts Predict a Euphoria In 2026 Amid Extended Cycle
Bitcoin (BTC) price may be following an extended bull-market cycle similar to the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The correlation between Bitcoin and ISM was coined by Raoul Pal, a global macro investor, and Julien Bittel, the head of asset allocation at EXPAAM, and has now been echoed by a crypto analyst at X alias @ColinTCrypto.
Bitcoin Price on an Extended Cycle Akin to the U.S. ISM
According to these crypto analysts, Bitcoin price has not yet experienced its euphoric growth in 2025 since it has been following the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The correlation between the two charts suggests that the Bitcoin price is likely to experience a peak in mid-2026.
Source: X
Notably, the correlation between the two charts is, however, heavily influenced by the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index. The midterm bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the ISM Manufacturing PMI is backed by the recent uptrend in the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index.
As such, this idea points to a potential invalidation of the four-year crypto bull cycle to a five-year pattern. Furthermore, Bitcoin price has often peaked in the following year after its halving event.
Related: Bitcoin Sits Above the Crucial $80,000 Level: What Should Investors Expect?
Meanwhile, the crypto analysts believe that the Bitcoin price will not experience a similar 70% drawdown after the next bullish euphoria. A potential 50% drawdown is expected to lead to a fresh bull market in the following years.
“Such a bear market might even be shorter in duration as well, ending mid-2026 instead of at the end of next year as would be typical (1-year-long bear markets are usually what we see),” the crypto analyst noted.
Major Factors Favoring Bullish Outlook in the Midterm
The rising adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors has signaled a strong conviction. Michael Saylor’s Strategy has led an army of publicly traded companies in accumulating more BTCs through leveraging credit capital markets.
According to onchain market data analysis from Santiment, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTCs has surged by 91 wallets in the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Santiment noted that the recent retail capitulation amid renewed demand from whale investors is a strong bullish factor to consider.
Source: Santiment
Upcoming Fed’s QE amid rising global money supply
The correlation between Bitcoin and the ISM is likely to continue and register bullish sentiment fueled by the rising global money supply. Early next week, the Federal Reserve will kickstart its much-anticipated Quantitative Easing (QE), which was last experienced during the 2017 crypto summer.
The midterm bullish outlook is bolstered by the rising global money supply, which is expected to find its way to the Bitcoin and crypto market in the coming months.
Related: Michael Saylor Urges Bitcoin Skeptics to Embrace Volatility as a Tool
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