Bitcoin BTC$87,830.49 enters the Thanksgiving period after a 35% correction from its October all-time high and now heading into its fifth consecutive down week.
The session before the holiday remains a consistently weak trading period. Six of the past seven pre Thanksgiving days (Nov. 26) have finished lower, and in 2020 and 2021 bitcoin fell about 8%. This may reflect reduced liquidity and hedging activity ahead of the holiday break.
Thanksgiving itself is generally a flat day. Since 2013 bitcoin has averaged a return of about 1.5% on the day and has only posted four negative Thanksgiving sessions. The day after the holiday is slightly stronger, averaging more than 2.3% gains.
On a weekly basis Thanksgiving typically falls in week 47, which has returned nearly 3% on average, although it sometimes lands at the later end of week 46, a historically stronger period that has averaged more than 6%.
Seasonally the fourth quarter has been bitcoin’s most bullish period with average gains near 77%, but this year Q4 is currently down 23%. While, bitcoin is down over 20% in November, the worst performing month since June 2022.
Bitcoin remains in a seven week drawdown from its October all time high of $126,000, and week 47 performance slightly negative. As November closes, options expiry could add to short-term volatility.
Bitcoin appears on track to finish the 2025 Thanksgiving below the 2024 level of $95,380. This would not be unprecedented, since bitcoin has posted lower Thanksgiving prices than the prior year on several occasions such as 2015, 2018, and 2022.
The difference, perhaps, with this year compared to previous has been the rush of institutional investors via spot bitcoin ETFs and hoards of bitcoin treasury companies. This has shifted market structure to a point where retail investors, once the bedrock of crypto trading, are being pushed to the periphery – and get liquidated on masse as a result.
The amount of liquidations on a single day in October on crypto venues, favored by retail investors over the likes of CME, topped $19 billion in what was the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history.
What’s left now is a relative void in liquidity on crypto exchanges. Established counterparties no longer want to take the risk of bogus auto-deleveraging events, instead they will trade on regulated venues – leaving retail traders to pick up the slack of take risk on a market that has fundamentally changed since this time last year.
