'Risk-on Confirmed' – Here's What Will Send Bitcoin on a New Rally, According to Analyst

The ‘digital gold’ narrative says bitcoin should be rallying, but instead, it has been crushed by shiny rocks for over a year, something that can only be explained by looking at BTC differently, one analyst suggests.

Bitcoin Is an ‘Enhanced Version of Equities’ – Not Digital Gold, Analyst Says

In an article on X, the macro analyst pseudonymously known as Market Radar uses the current divergence between BTC and gold to deconstruct the idea that bitcoin is digital gold.

He says that gold and bitcoin aren’t competing for the same role in the financial system.

While gold acts as the ultimate safe haven asset that benefits from worries about inflation, debt, or currency debasement, bitcoin behaves like the riskiest asset on the board, thriving when investors are confident, risk appetite is full, and liquidity is abundant.

Says Market Radar:

“ Gold is the ultimate bond, one with no default risk but also no coupon. It’s where capital flows when inflation and sovereign credibility concerns push investors closer in on the risk curve, away from duration and toward something that can’t be printed or defaulted on. Bitcoin, by contrast, is the riskiest asset on the board. It represents fractional ownership of something entirely digital, something you can’t touch, something with no real-world utility outside of financialized products. Bitcoin is the release valve for liquidity when conditions are good and investors want to push further out on the risk curve. It’s an enhanced version of equities, not a competitor to gold.”

The analyst says 2025 proved this distinction “decisively,” with gold exploding on central bank buying and falling real yields while BTC broke down, falling as much as 35% from its all-time high hit in early October.

And the distinction matters because, despite what many believe, today’s liquidity isn’t as plentiful as it may look on the surface.

Market Radar notes that a breakdown of the yen carry trade is also coming down hard on BTC, with swathes of global capital looking to raise cash before their positions unwind due to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) rising rates.

Even though the Fed has been relatively accommodating, with rates in a definitive downtrend, the analyst says the BOJ is still creating an overlooked liquidity squeeze against BTC.

MarketRadar Says:

“The Fed can be neutral, domestic conditions can be supportive, and bitcoin can still face liquidity headwinds from a central bank on the other side of the world. That’s the reality of trading the riskiest asset on a globally connected curve.”

But there’s also another aspect to bitcoin’s underperformance that investors are missing, according to the analyst.

Read more: Peter Brandt Sounds Alarm on Bitcoin Sell Signal as Bear Channel Completes

He also says that equities have “an enormous passive flow cushion” due to billions of dollars being auto-allocated into target-date funds and index funds by advisors who are largely indifferent to liquidity conditions or risk sentiment.

That creates an “asymmetric response to liquidity contraction” that allows equities to hold up during tighter conditions and recession fears, while bitcoin, without any passive bid, rolls over.

Market Radar says that with all of this in mind, it doesn’t necessarily mean that bitcoin is finished, just that the conditions needed for a sustained move up aren’t here yet.

He says that the “regime is improving,” and that “risk-on is confirmed,” and all that’s needed is for the price to demonstrate that with a breakout of its bearish structure.

Until that happens, BTC is a “falling knife we’re not willing to catch.”

• Why isn’t bitcoin acting like digital gold in 2025?
  An analyst says bitcoin trades like a high-risk asset, not a safe haven like gold.
• How does bitcoin differ from gold in market behavior?
  Gold benefits from inflation fears and falling yields, while bitcoin rises only when liquidity and risk appetite are strong.
• Why has gold outperformed bitcoin for over a year?
  Central bank buying and tighter global liquidity have favored gold while pressuring risk assets like BTC.
• What needs to happen for bitcoin to rally again?
  Bitcoin needs clearer risk-on conditions and a breakout from its bearish price structure.