Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility relative to gold has plunged to an all-time low, raising red flags about the cryptocurrency’s future performance compared to the traditional safe-haven asset.
As of August 1, Bitcoin’s 260-day annualized volatility stood at just 2.2 times that of gold, its lowest ratio on record, according to data shared by Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone on August 4.
Since 2021, Bitcoin has typically averaged more than three times the volatility of gold while delivering similar returns, dynamic McGlone considers unsustainable.
He noted that the narrowing risk premium is a troubling sign for Bitcoin’s ability to outperform going forward.
This contraction in volatility comes at a time when Bitcoin has struggled to decisively outperform gold, despite carrying significantly more risk over the past four years. The Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio remains range-bound, unable to break above key resistance near the 9.0 level, last tested in late 2021 and again in early 2025.
McGlone cautioned that Bitcoin’s “risk-on” nature could work against it in the second half of the year if broader market risk appetite diminishes.
Gold’s next price target
The strategist pointed to suppressed S&P 500 volatility and warned of a potential reversion to the mean in risk assets. In such a scenario, gold, a “risk-off” asset, could benefit, potentially surging past the $3,500 level.
Looking ahead, McGlone suggested that if markets remain flat through year-end, 2025 might be viewed as a success under a second Donald Trump term, except for one standout, record-setting gold prices.
In contrast, Bitcoin could lag, as tightening volatility and fading speculative appeal weigh on its performance.
This outlook comes despite both assets delivering strong gains in 2025, with Bitcoin recently hitting a record high above $123,000 and gold encountering fresh resistance near the $4,000 mark.
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