Bitcoin pushed above $78,000, lifting the broader crypto market. The move came as risk sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. Stock index futures also gained.
The cryptocurrency’s ascent ended the weeks of choppy trading between $65,000 and $75,000 that defined March and early April, finally giving momentum traders the green signal they had been waiting for.
Momentum traders buy when they see proof that an upward trend is underway. Bitcoin’s breakout is exactly that, and more buyers could pile in as a result, adding to the momentum. As the first law of motion says: An object in motion stays in motion until an outside force acts upon it, though Sir Isaac Newton may not have been thinking of financial markets at the time.
“The market spent months capped in the 65 to 75 box. Breaking out of that kind of range matters because it changes behavior. Sellers who were comfortable fading rallies above 74 now have to reassess. Momentum buyers who were waiting for confirmation finally have something to lean on,” analysts at Marex said.
Onchain indicators suggest the same. For instance, the number of coins held in wallets tied to centralized exchanges has dropped to a fresh multiyear low of 2.67 millon $BTC, according to data source CryptoQuant. It points to continued investor accumulation, which could culminate in a supply shock.
“Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to shrink, with fewer coins available to sell, more $BTC moving to long-term holders, and liquidity tightening. Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce – supply down means volatility up,” Delta Exchange said on X.
Still, QCP Capital is urging caution, noting the persistent relative richness of bitcoin put options on Deribit. Puts are used as a hedge against potential price drops in the underlying asset. It added that crypto trends currently seem tied to the price of oil and the interest-rate outlook.
“The path forward remains anchored to oil and policy. A move lower in crude or clearer Fed signaling would support risk. Absent that, markets are likely to remain in a holding pattern, pricing uncertainty rather than resolution,” the Singapore-based firm said in a market update.
In traditional markets, WTI crude futures are trading around $90, having bounced from a low of $78 on Friday.
In the broader market, DeFi security risks remain an issue as hacks proliferate. Early today, the Sui-based Volo protocol was drained of over $3 million just days after the KelpDAO event that caused collateral damage across the sector. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
- Two ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz, UK says, after U.S. extends Iran ceasefire (CNBC): Two cargo ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday, after the U.S. extended the ceasefire and as diplomats seek to bring the U.S. and Iran together for peace talks.
- Flight to safety: How Maker’s Spark and $USDC are winning the $10 billion Aave breakup (CoinDesk): Aave’s TVL is down by about 40%. Some of that capital moved into Maker-linked Spark, which has emerged as the clearest relative winner. Others migrated to Lido and Centrifuge.
- Another DeFi protocol loses millions in hack days after KelpDAO breach (CoinDesk): Volo Protocol was exploited, losing about $3.5 million from three vaults holding WBTC, XAUm, and $USDC.
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price movements in candlestick format, with lines indicating the 100-day and 200-day average prices.
$BTC’s price has established a firm foothold above the 100-day average, represented by the white line. This is pivotal because the 100-day average capped the bounce in January, following which sellers re-established control, leading to a deeper crash to nearly $60,000.
Now the price has pierced through, which typically signals a strengthening of bullish momentum, focus shifts to the 200-day average, currently positioned at $85,900.
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