Bitcoin's Next Move Depends On This Factor Nobody's Watching: 10x Research

Bitcoin ) may already be exiting its bear market phase, according to 10x Research head of research Marcus Thielen.

He says the market is shifting “from red to orange” as selling pressure fades and liquidity conditions gradually improve.

Gradual Accumulation, Not Defensive Positioning

In an interview on May 11, Thielen argued that what the biggest factor traders are missing is not aggressive buying demand, but the lack of sellers left in the market.

He said Bitcoin currently requires “very little money” to move higher because forced liquidations and heavy outflows have largely already played out.

The analyst pointed to several improving signals:

• Consecutive months of positive regime-model readings
• Slowing Bitcoin outflows compared to 2022 capitulation periods
• Reduced futures open interest after February liquidations
• Gradual inflows returning through ETFs and corporate buyers like Strategy

Thielen said the current environment does not yet qualify as a “screaming buy,” but he believes the technical and on-chain backdrop now supports gradual accumulation rather than defensive positioning.

Bitcoin Halving, Inflation Impact

Thielen challenged the traditional Bitcoin halving narrative, arguing demand, not supply reductions, ultimately drives crypto cycles.

According to Thielen, Bitcoin’s historical peaks have aligned more closely with sentiment shifts, liquidity cycles and macro conditions than mining halving’s alone.

On macro risks, Thielen warned inflation could climb back toward 5.5%, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve restrictive for longer.

However, he said Bitcoin may eventually benefit from AI-driven capital spending, higher nominal growth and persistent inflationary pressures tied to hyperscaler infrastructure expansion.

Why It Matters

Thielen believes Bitcoin is bottoming on low volume rather than panic buying, while selling pressure from hedge funds and leveraged traders appears to be fading.

He added that the next major leg higher may depend more on gradual capital inflows than a sudden macro catalyst. Thielen remains more constructive on Bitcoin relative to altcoins, citing weak flows and persistent selling pressure across much of the broader crypto market.

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