Is a 60% Bitcoin Crash Still on the Table? Analyst Points to Wall Street

Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States showed early signs of progress after senior officials from both countries held talks in Switzerland.

Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said the discussions were constructive, as both sides agreed to a 60-day timeline to secure a final deal. Further technical meetings are scheduled to take place at the Burgenstock resort later this week. The optimism surrounding the talks briefly pushed Bitcoin ($BTC) above $64,000, although the asset later gave back some gains and fell below the level.

However, tensions between the two countries still linger as the deal was not signed by June 19 as promised and there are new attacks between Israel and Lebanon. One analyst has outlined a potential downside scenario for Bitcoin if wider market conditions deteriorate.

Worst-Case Scenario

Bitcoin could fall to $23,979 in 2026 if the broader stock market suffers a crash of more than 50%, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson. He shared a two-week Bitcoin chart that depicted $BTC potentially declining toward the $23,980 level, based on a long-term volume-weighted support line derived from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

Olson said such a move would likely require a major stock market downturn while adding that he does not expect Bitcoin to fall to zero.

Meanwhile, another prominent market commentator, Doctor Profit, said that Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag on the daily chart, while growing market optimism is creating liquidity below current prices. He said Bitcoin’s recent uptick matched his earlier expectations and explained that prices can revisit the same levels several times during sideways trading. He expects the asset to eventually fall toward the $54,000-$56,000 range before finding a market bottom at lower levels.

Lagging Institutional Demand

Between June 14 and June 18, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $227 million and extended their losing streak to six straight weeks.

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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost also highlighted the weak institutional appetite for Bitcoin and said the Coinbase Premium Index has remained largely negative in recent weeks. The indicator compares $BTC prices on Coinbase Advanced and Binance to gauge the behavior of professional and retail investors.

According to Darkfost, negative readings mean that institutions trading on Coinbase are selling more aggressively than retail investors on Binance, which has created downward pressure on prices. He added that a wider price gap between the two exchanges points to a greater divergence in investor behavior. Institutional investors are not trying to catch a market bottom; instead, they prefer to wait for stronger price performance and clearer signs of a recovery before increasing their Bitcoin exposure.