A Large Bearish Bet on Tokenized SpaceX Shares
Onchain analytics account Lookonchain flagged a large short position against SPCX, the tokenized version of SpaceX stock that trades on crypto platforms. The whale placed limit short orders worth approximately $203.47 million at prices between $141.93 and $142.90 per token, a wager that the stock’s price will fall from those levels. Limit short orders of that size are unusual for a single wallet and typically signal either a large institutional hedge or a high-conviction directional bet against near-term momentum.
The short bet lands during an especially volatile stretch for SPCX as tokenized trading platform Gate saw roughly $700 million in SPCX volume over two days in early August, with $332 million changing hands on August 4 alone (as traders positioned around a 911.5 million-share unlock scheduled for August 6).
Rather than selling off on the unlock as some investors feared, the stock rallied 6.1% to close at $114.92 that day, a move that left short sellers who had bet on unlock-driven weakness on the wrong side of the trade. The whale’s new short, placed roughly a week later at levels above $140, suggests at least one large trader believes the stock has run too far, too fast.
Broader options and futures positioning around SPCX has also been active. Total open interest in SPCX futures stood near $203 million (as of mid-August), down modestly from levels seen right before the company’s early-August earnings report but up sharply from where it sat before large whales began building positions in early August.
Separately tracked whale activity showed a mix of new long and short entries at the million-dollar level in the same window, showing just how contested the stock has become among large traders since its market debut.
Musk’s Stake Disclosure Adds to the Backdrop
The short position also comes just a day after Elon Musk disclosed the full scope of his ownership in SpaceX itself. A Schedule 13G filed with the SEC showed Musk holds a 48.4% beneficial stake in the company, equivalent to more than 6.4 billion shares, valued at over $900 billion at current prices.
The filing breaks the stake down into 849.5 million Class A shares and 3.92 billion Class B shares held through trusts where Musk serves as trustee, another 1.3 billion restricted Class B shares held directly, and 350 million Class B shares issuable through stock options. Class B shares carry ten votes each versus one vote for Class A shares, giving Musk sole voting and dispositive power over more than 82% of SpaceX’s total voting power.
Not all of that stake is currently accessible though, and a significant portion consists of unvested performance-based shares and options tied to milestones that include multi-trillion-dollar valuation targets and progress toward Mars settlement goals, meaning Musk’s fully diluted economic stake will keep shifting as those targets are met or missed. SpaceX went public on June 12 after an $85.7 billion initial public offering (IPO), one of the largest in history, which pushed the company’s market capitalization past $2 trillion.
That said, whether the whale’s short bet pays off will depend largely on how SPCX trades in the days following the disclosure-driven news cycle around Musk’s stake and the aftermath of the August 6 share unlock.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.