Bitcoin ETFs are still $1 billion shy of breaking even in 2026

While investor demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin $BTC$78,473.65 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has rebounded in recent weeks, net flows for the year remain firmly in the red.

A spectacular August brought in a massive $3.52 billion in fresh capital, followed by a solid $770.15 million so far this month, according to data source SoSoValue. While that momentum gives the bulls hope that the worst of the market doldrums are finally behind us, the broader math shows that ETFs are still in the red for the year.

Despite the recent winning streak, these funds remain down roughly $1 billion in investor money on a year-to-date basis. The primary culprit for this lingering deficit is the brutal double-whammy of May and June, which saw institutional capital flee the funds at an alarming rate. June alone wiped out a staggering $4.51 billion, completely erasing the gains achieved during March and April. Consequently, bulls still have work to do before ETFs can break even for the year in terms of flows.

“The key test now is whether those inflows survive this week’s CPI and Treasury buyback,” analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said in a note to CoinDesk.

If investors continue buying while short-term yields remain elevated, it would indicate that the policy rate is no longer the binding constraint on bitcoin, analysts added. The U.S. inflation data is due this Thursday.

The currency market has already signaled that elevated bond yields shouldn’t choke off bitcoin’s upside.

That said, the crypto market isn’t entirely clear of headwinds. Oil prices have surged 10% this month, with Nymex-listed WTI futures hitting a three-month high above $94 earlier today. If these gains continue to accelerate, they could easily trigger fresh inflation concerns, potentially sparking a wave of risk aversion across global financial markets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

• Bitcoin’s golden cross is here (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s golden cross is live. However, its record as a standalone indicator is mixed. The signal occurs when an asset’s average price over 50 days moves above its 200-day average, setting the stage for a potential rally.
• Liquid Network gets back 3,400 bitcoin from whitehat hackers; talks underway for the rest (CoinDesk): The whitehat hackers behind Sunday’s Liquid Network breach have largely kept their promise, returning most of the stolen bitcoin after the network moved to fix the vulnerability. About 598 $BTC, worth roughly $47 million, is still outstanding.
• Brent crude nears $100 after strikes on Saudi energy sites amid renewed Mideast hostilities (CNBC): Oil prices surged on Tuesday as attacks on Saudi Arabian energy facilities compounded fears of escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude for November delivery rose 2.23% to $99.16. West Texas Intermediate advanced 3.26% to $94.46 per barrel.
• Yen climbs to seven-month high on hawkish BOJ bets (Reuters): The yen ​climbed to a near seven-month high as growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase next ‌week sent bearish traders scurrying for cover, putting pressure on the dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data this week.