Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently trading around $110,700, sitting just above a key support at $111,350. The 50-day SMA at $115,179 acts as resistance, while the 200-day SMA at $101,690 serves as the long-term safety net.
- Immediate support: $111,350
- Major support: $101,690 (200-day SMA) / $100,000 psychological level
- Resistance: $112,142 – $115,179
- Breakout target: $118,616
BTC/USD 1-day chart via TradingView
The RSI at 44 signals that BTC is consolidating after a correction, but not yet oversold. A breakout above $115K could open the way to retest $118K before resuming the uptrend. If BTC holds above $100K in September, the stage is set for a Q4 parabolic move.
1. U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Crash
The U.S. 10-year bond yield is falling sharply, and that has major implications for risk-on assets like $Bitcoin. Lower yields mean:
- Cheaper borrowing costs.
- Easier access to liquidity for institutions.
- Renewed appetite for growth and alternative assets.
Historically, falling yields have triggered rotations into equities and crypto. For BTC, this sets up a perfect storm for inflows in Q4.
Breaking news out of Beijing: the People’s Bank of China injected ¥2 trillion in liquidity this week. This massive cash flood into the financial system is designed to stabilize growth—but global markets will feel the effects.
- More liquidity = stronger demand for risk assets.
- Asian investors already play a dominant role in crypto markets.
- Historically, Chinese liquidity pushes spill over into global BTC demand.
This injection echoes previous cycles where Asian liquidity boosted Bitcoin’s climb toward new highs.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is cornered. With slowing growth and bond markets signaling stress, analysts now expect 25–50bps rate cuts in the coming months.
Rate cuts mean:
- Lower cost of capital.
- Rising investor confidence.
- A tidal wave of liquidity hitting equities and crypto.
“Survive September” has become the mantra—because once cuts begin, Bitcoin is likely to lead risk assets into all-time highs in Q4.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Road to $150,000
With bond yields collapsing, China adding trillions in liquidity, and the Fed preparing to cut rates, Bitcoin is positioned for a parabolic rally into 2026.
- Short term: Range-bound between $111K and $115K in September.
- Q4 2025: Breakout above $118K could ignite a rally toward $130K.
- Before 2026: Macro liquidity tailwinds could drive BTC to $150,000.
For portfolio managers, maintaining core BTC exposure while hedging downside risks under $100K is the optimal play.