As the Gold Rush Begins, What’s in Store for Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’?

Gold has been on a tear in 2025, rising approximately 40% year-to-date as investors pile in amid inflation concerns, steady central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of further US interest rate cuts.

The Fed’s recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points made gold more attractive because it doesn’t pay interest, so it becomes less costly to hold, (carry cost). Plus, with more rate cuts expected in October and December, gold could get another boost.

Major financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Citi, and UBS, are issuing upward revisions to their gold price projections. Certain forecasts now believe gold could reach $4,000 an ounce by 2026, especially if interest rates stay low and the returns on other assets remain weak.

Related: Bitcoin Weekly Chart Signals Hidden Bullish Divergence: How High Can BTC Climb in Q4?

‘Uptober’ has been a reliable Bitcoin seasonality

“Uptober” refers to a recurring seasonal pattern whereby October tends to be a strong month for Bitcoin. Historically, the cryptocurrency has posted gains in October in 10 out of the last 12 years.

So far, a strong or stable September has often served as a reliable indicator for notable October rallies. For instance, after rising about 7.3% in September 2024, Bitcoin went up another 10.8% in October. In 2023, even a small September gain was followed by a huge 28.5% jump next month.

Several factors could lead to a strong October for Bitcoin, including more interest rate cuts, improving conditions for market liquidity, and a technical setup where Bitcoin is trading in a tight range, potentially setting up to break out to the upside.

Why the gold surge and Uptober might be connected

Both gold and Bitcoin tend to benefit from similar macro drivers such as inflation, interest rate expectations, liquidity, and uncertainty. When rates are expected to ease, gold often rallies, and it’s generally the same situation for crypto.

Some of the attention (and capital) that drives gold up can spill into Bitcoin, as investors search for upside in a lower-rate, higher-liquidity environment.

There is likely a psychological effect too, since when gold rises, it usually means people are being cautious. But if other parts of the market are also doing well, that caution can turn into confidence, making a strong October more probable when the overall economic mood is positive.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Banana Zone’ Points to Early Oct–Nov 2025 ATH

The hinge is liquidity and the Fed’s tone

Even so, liquidity is still a big question for the rally to follow-through. If the Fed pauses on cuts or guides to slower easing, gold’s momentum can cool and Bitcoin’s October edge can fade.
Traders will watch policy language, term premium, and funding conditions. If those stay friendly, both trades can work in tandem; if not, Uptober can turn into chop.