Bitwise CIO warns of retail capitulation while institutional demand for Bitcoin persists

Bitcoin is now trading below $100,000, dipping to its lowest level since June, and the panic button has already been slammed by most retail investors. Leverage trades have collapsed, sentiment is wrecked, and what’s left looks a lot like a crypto winter.

But Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, isn’t flinching. He sees this brutal selloff as the exact setup that could end with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high before the year is out.

Speaking Tuesday on CNBC, Matt said, “It’s almost a tale of two markets. Crypto retail is in max desperation. We’ve seen leverage blowouts … the market for sort of crypto native retail is just more depressed than I’ve ever seen it.”

For him, that desperation is a bottom signal. While retail is pulling the plug, Matt says institutions are still very much in the game, and they’re not scared.

He said that financial advisors and Wall Street firms he speaks with are still eager to gain exposure to Bitcoin, even with the recent pullback.

“When I go out and speak to institutions or financial advisors, they’re still excited to allocate to an asset class that if you pan back and look over the course of a year, is still delivering very strong returns,” Matt said.

Institutional appetite holds strong despite crash

The big players aren’t retreating. While ETFs tied to Bitcoin have seen slower inflows since Q2, the money hasn’t stopped.

Matt pointed to continued strength in vehicles like iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). All three are still pulling capital. In his words, “We continue to see strong inflows into bitcoin.”

Matt also mentioned Bitwise’s own Solana staking ETF (BSOL), which pulled in over $400 million in its first week. That enthusiasm took a hit though. Since its October 28 debut, the fund has dropped almost 20%.

Even so, Matt believes financial advisors are using this downturn to prove to clients they understand where the space is heading. He expects them to increase allocations before the year wraps.

He called out the need for one final clean-out of retail sentiment before the market can move forward. “We have to get through this retail flush out. We have to hit bottom from a sentiment perspective. I think we’re very close to that,” he said. Matt believes that once sellers give up and buyers start stepping back in, the price could accelerate fast.

Bitcoin decouples from stocks as predictions return

Despite hovering near a six-month low, Matt isn’t ruling out a major rebound. He even said he wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin surge past $125,000 or even $130,000 before year-end. “I think bitcoin could easily end the year at new all-time highs,” he said. “Whether we’ll get all the way to $150,000, we’ll have to see.”

He referenced Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, who recently told CNBC he expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000. Matt said Saylor’s forecast isn’t crazy. “I do think the sellers are nearing exhaustion and the buyers are still relatively hungry. And when those two things sort of cross paths, again, I think we could end the year close to or at new all-time highs. And if we’re lucky, we’ll get to Saylor’s target as well,” he added.

Matt described institutional investors as more stable in their approach to crypto, and said they’ll be the ones to drive the market forward once the retail bleed-out is done. “I think we’re closer to the end of that than the beginning, but … there always could be a little bit more downside,” he said.

Matt also pointed out that the gap between Bitcoin and the stock market is widening. In the past week, Bitcoin has dropped 12.2%, sharply underperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which fell 1.2% and 0.9% respectively.

Matt believes that if stocks would just settle down or perhaps surge a bit again, Bitcoin has more room to run. As of Wednesday morning, Dow futures were up 36 points, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.4%.

Earlier in the session, the Dow Jones fell 251 points, S&P lost 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2%.t.